Market icon

How many different countries will the US strike in 2026?

6 16.5%

7 16.0%

8 14.6%

5 13.5%

Polymarket

$179,983 Vol.

This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.

Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$179,983
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Created At
Nov 13, 2025, 11:15 AM ET
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent. Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Beware of external links.

Market icon

How many different countries will the US strike in 2026?

6 16.5%

7 16.0%

8 14.6%

5 13.5%

Polymarket

$179,983 Vol.

Market icon

3

$41,799 Vol.

2%

Market icon

4

$3,108 Vol.

8%

Market icon

5

$3,611 Vol.

13%

Market icon

6

$1,140 Vol.

17%

Market icon

7

$1,308 Vol.

16%

Market icon

8

$2,502 Vol.

15%

Market icon

9

$3,482 Vol.

11%

Market icon

10

$6,458 Vol.

7%

Market icon

11

$2,727 Vol.

6%

Market icon

12

$3,811 Vol.

5%

Market icon

13

$1,498 Vol.

4%

Market icon

14

$1,199 Vol.

3%

Market icon

15+

$6,361 Vol.

2%

Beware of external links.