Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 96.7% implied probability of no change at the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, reflecting the Federal Reserve's March 18 decision to hold the federal funds rate steady—currently in the 3.50%-3.75% range—after prior cuts, amid resilient economic conditions and inflation above the 2% target. February nonfarm payrolls fell 92,000 with unemployment steady at 4.4%, while CPI rose 0.3% and core PCE accelerated to 3.0% late last year, reinforcing policymakers' data-dependent pause signaled in recent communications. This aligns with CME FedWatch odds near 95%. Realistic challenges include sharper labor deterioration prompting a 25 bps cut or hotter-than-expected March CPI data sparking hike odds, though trader capital heavily discounts such shifts ahead of key releases.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedFed decision in April?
Fed decision in April?
No change 96.6%
25+ bps increase 1.9%
25 bps decrease 1.0%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$37,388,543 Vol.
$37,388,543 Vol.
Apr 29, 2026
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
1%
No change
97%
25+ bps increase
2%
No change 96.6%
25+ bps increase 1.9%
25 bps decrease 1.0%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$37,388,543 Vol.
$37,388,543 Vol.
Apr 29, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$13,020,994 Vol.
<1%
25 bps decrease
$7,663,145 Vol.
1%
No change
$7,766,450 Vol.
97%
25+ bps increase
$8,938,463 Vol.
2%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 96.7% implied probability of no change at the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, reflecting the Federal Reserve's March 18 decision to hold the federal funds rate steady—currently in the 3.50%-3.75% range—after prior cuts, amid resilient economic conditions and inflation above the 2% target. February nonfarm payrolls fell 92,000 with unemployment steady at 4.4%, while CPI rose 0.3% and core PCE accelerated to 3.0% late last year, reinforcing policymakers' data-dependent pause signaled in recent communications. This aligns with CME FedWatch odds near 95%. Realistic challenges include sharper labor deterioration prompting a 25 bps cut or hotter-than-expected March CPI data sparking hike odds, though trader capital heavily discounts such shifts ahead of key releases.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Market Opened: Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ET
Volume
$37,388,543End Date
Apr 29, 2026Market Opened
Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 96.7% implied probability of no change at the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, reflecting the Federal Reserve's March 18 decision to hold the federal funds rate steady—currently in the 3.50%-3.75% range—after prior cuts, amid resilient economic conditions and inflation above the 2% target. February nonfarm payrolls fell 92,000 with unemployment steady at 4.4%, while CPI rose 0.3% and core PCE accelerated to 3.0% late last year, reinforcing policymakers' data-dependent pause signaled in recent communications. This aligns with CME FedWatch odds near 95%. Realistic challenges include sharper labor deterioration prompting a 25 bps cut or hotter-than-expected March CPI data sparking hike odds, though trader capital heavily discounts such shifts ahead of key releases.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$37,388,543End Date
Apr 29, 2026Market Opened
Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 96.7% implied probability of no change at the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, reflecting the Federal Reserve's March 18 decision to hold the federal funds rate steady—currently in the 3.50%-3.75% range—after prior cuts, amid resilient economic conditions and inflation above the 2% target. February nonfarm payrolls fell 92,000 with unemployment steady at 4.4%, while CPI rose 0.3% and core PCE accelerated to 3.0% late last year, reinforcing policymakers' data-dependent pause signaled in recent communications. This aligns with CME FedWatch odds near 95%. Realistic challenges include sharper labor deterioration prompting a 25 bps cut or hotter-than-expected March CPI data sparking hike odds, though trader capital heavily discounts such shifts ahead of key releases.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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