Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors Anthropic as the company behind the #2 AI model on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard at the end of March 2026, with Claude Opus 4.6 holding second place at 1503 Elo—just 2 points behind Google's leading Gemini 3.1 Pro—while xAI's Grok-4.20 trails further. This positioning stems from Anthropic's recent Claude enhancements, including expanded context windows, advanced tool calling, and agentic features like auto-planning and code review, solidifying its competitive edge in crowdsourced benchmarks over the past month. The near-unanimous 100% implied probability reflects the leaderboard's stability in late March, backed by real capital from informed traders. Realistic challenges would require an unforeseen late-month model update from Google or xAI surpassing Claude's demonstrated capabilities before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedAnthropic 100.0%
Google <1%
OpenAI <1%
Z.ai <1%
$590,523 Vol.
$590,523 Vol.

No

OpenAI
No

Z.ai
No

DeepSeek
No

Mistral
No

Anthropic
Yes

Alibaba
No

xAI
No

Moonshot
No

Meituan
No
Anthropic 100.0%
Google <1%
OpenAI <1%
Z.ai <1%
$590,523 Vol.
$590,523 Vol.

No

OpenAI
No

Z.ai
No

DeepSeek
No

Mistral
No

Anthropic
Yes

Alibaba
No

xAI
No

Moonshot
No

Meituan
No
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second-highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Market Opened: Dec 2, 2025, 6:02 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second-highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors Anthropic as the company behind the #2 AI model on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard at the end of March 2026, with Claude Opus 4.6 holding second place at 1503 Elo—just 2 points behind Google's leading Gemini 3.1 Pro—while xAI's Grok-4.20 trails further. This positioning stems from Anthropic's recent Claude enhancements, including expanded context windows, advanced tool calling, and agentic features like auto-planning and code review, solidifying its competitive edge in crowdsourced benchmarks over the past month. The near-unanimous 100% implied probability reflects the leaderboard's stability in late March, backed by real capital from informed traders. Realistic challenges would require an unforeseen late-month model update from Google or xAI surpassing Claude's demonstrated capabilities before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions