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Will Khamenei tweet on...?

Geopolitics·Iran

Will Khamenei tweet on...?

$99,930 Vol.

Mar 23, 2026

March 21

$22,372 Vol.

92%

March 22

$12,554 Vol.

86%

March 23

$10,599 Vol.

87%

$99,930 Vol.

March 21

$22,372 Vol.

92%

March 22

$12,554 Vol.

86%

March 23

$10,599 Vol.

87%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if an official X profile of Supreme Leader of Iran Ali Khamenei posts/tweets again between 12:00AM ET and 11:59PM ET on the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Posts include any post, repost, or reply. The resolution source for this market are Khamenei's official X profiles: https://x.com/khamenei_ir, https://x.com/KhameneiBangla, https://x.com/az_Khamenei, https://x.com/Khamenei_fa, https://x.com/ar_Khamenei, https://x.com/Khamenei_Heb. Posts/tweets from any other account will not qualify.

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

Trader consensus for whether Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei posts on X reflects his rare, official communications via @khamenei_ir, typically reserved for major foreign policy signals amid crises. Recent Iran-Israel tensions, including Tehran's October 1 missile barrage—praised in an immediate Khamenei post—and Israel's October 26 strikes on Iranian sites, have heightened expectations, yet no additional statements have followed despite vows of retaliation. Khamenei's selective tweeting pattern, prioritizing Persian/English messages on existential threats, drives cautious odds. Upcoming potential escalations or Friday prayers speeches could prompt activity, while prolonged silence might solidify low-probability views among traders weighing regime messaging discipline.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated Mar 21, 2026, 12:32 AM UTC

Will Mojtaba Khamenei tweet again on March 21?

87%

Iran leadership change by December 31?

62%

Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30?

16%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Will Khamenei tweet on...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "March 16" at 100%, followed by "March 17" at 100%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Will Khamenei tweet on...?" has generated $99.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 15, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Will Khamenei tweet on...?," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Will Khamenei tweet on...?" is "March 16" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "March 17" at 100%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Will Khamenei tweet on...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "Will Khamenei tweet on...?." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.

Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $99.9K traded on “Will Khamenei tweet on...?,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

To place your first trade on "Will Khamenei tweet on...?," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.

On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 100¢ for "March 16" in the "Will Khamenei tweet on...?" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 100% chance that "March 16" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 100¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 0¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.

The "Will Khamenei tweet on...?" market is scheduled to resolve on or around Mar 23, 2026. This means trading will remain open and the odds will continue to shift as new information emerges until that date. The exact resolution timing depends on when the official result becomes available, as outlined in the "Rules" section on this page.

The "Will Khamenei tweet on...?" market has an active community of 68 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by "Top Holders" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of trades.

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "Will Khamenei tweet on...?." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.

Note on Middle East Markets

Will Khamenei tweet on...?

Will Khamenei tweet on...?

Rules

Market Context

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Comments (68)

Top Holders

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Activity

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