Tarik Skubal's status as the 2024 AL Cy Young winner gives him a narrow edge in trader consensus at 25%, but George Kirby's elite command and sub-3.00 ERA consistency in recent seasons keeps him glued at 23.3%, underscoring the razor-thin margin in a loaded AL rotation landscape. Dylan Cease's sky-high strikeout rates and potential AL trade rumors fuel his 14.1% share, while Jacob deGrom's ace pedigree (11.5%) and Garrett Crochet's breakout velocity (11.0%) add volatility if health holds. Free agency dynamics, like Max Fried's possible AL landing (9.6%), deepen the field, with no single pitcher dominating innings or FIP projections amid widespread parity in WHIP and swing-and-miss metrics, reflecting the wisdom of crowds on repeat contenders versus emerging arms.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedTarik Skubal 19%
Garrett Crochet 15%
Jacob deGrom 12%
Max Fried 9.6%
Tarik Skubal
25%
Garrett Crochet
11%
Jacob deGrom
12%
Cole Ragans
7%
Hunter Brown
5%
Max Fried
10%
Bryan Woo
9%
Logan Gilbert
2%
Kyle Bradish
2%
Joe Ryan
2%
Ranger Suarez
6%
Nathan Eovaldi
6%
Dylan Cease
14%
George Kirby
23%
Carlos Rodón
5%
Kevin Gausman
2%
MacKenzie Gore
5%
Jose Soriano
5%
Pablo Lopez
6%
Gavin Williams
4%
Bryce Miller
5%
Cam Schlittler
5%
Gerrit Cole
3%
Tarik Skubal 19%
Garrett Crochet 15%
Jacob deGrom 12%
Max Fried 9.6%
Tarik Skubal
25%
Garrett Crochet
11%
Jacob deGrom
12%
Cole Ragans
7%
Hunter Brown
5%
Max Fried
10%
Bryan Woo
9%
Logan Gilbert
2%
Kyle Bradish
2%
Joe Ryan
2%
Ranger Suarez
6%
Nathan Eovaldi
6%
Dylan Cease
14%
George Kirby
23%
Carlos Rodón
5%
Kevin Gausman
2%
MacKenzie Gore
5%
Jose Soriano
5%
Pablo Lopez
6%
Gavin Williams
4%
Bryce Miller
5%
Cam Schlittler
5%
Gerrit Cole
3%
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Feb 18, 2026, 10:13 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Tarik Skubal's status as the 2024 AL Cy Young winner gives him a narrow edge in trader consensus at 25%, but George Kirby's elite command and sub-3.00 ERA consistency in recent seasons keeps him glued at 23.3%, underscoring the razor-thin margin in a loaded AL rotation landscape. Dylan Cease's sky-high strikeout rates and potential AL trade rumors fuel his 14.1% share, while Jacob deGrom's ace pedigree (11.5%) and Garrett Crochet's breakout velocity (11.0%) add volatility if health holds. Free agency dynamics, like Max Fried's possible AL landing (9.6%), deepen the field, with no single pitcher dominating innings or FIP projections amid widespread parity in WHIP and swing-and-miss metrics, reflecting the wisdom of crowds on repeat contenders versus emerging arms.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated



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