Trader consensus for the 2026 NL Cy Young reflects intense competition among a cluster of high-upside NL Central arms, with Paul Skenes leading narrowly at 26% implied probability due to his electric 2024 rookie dominance—1.96 ERA, 170 strikeouts in 133 innings—but Hunter Greene (22.9%), Mitch Keller (22.8%), and Brewers prospect Jacob Misiorowski (20.6%) staying close on raw velocity, consistency, and minor-league dominance. This tightness stems from emerging prime-age talent (all mid-20s by 2026) in a parity-driven National League, where established aces like Chris Sale and Zack Wheeler lag amid injury risks and heavier workloads, underscoring the wisdom of crowds betting on sustained health and innings volume over past accolades.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedPaul Skenes 23%
Cristopher Sanchez 16%
Yoshinobu Yamamoto 9%
Freddy Peralta 6.0%
Paul Skenes
26%
Cristopher Sanchez
16%
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
8%
Freddy Peralta
6%
Chris Sale
9%
Hunter Greene
23%
Tyler Glasnow
5%
Nick Lodolo
5%
Zack Wheeler
6%
Blake Snell
3%
Jacob Misiorowski
21%
Logan Webb
2%
Shohei Ohtani
7%
Nolan McLean
6%
Spencer Strider
6%
Jesus Luzardo
6%
Nick Pivetta
6%
Eury Perez
2%
Brandon Woodruff
6%
Michael King
1%
Spencer Schwellenbach
1%
Mitch Keller
23%
Paul Skenes 23%
Cristopher Sanchez 16%
Yoshinobu Yamamoto 9%
Freddy Peralta 6.0%
Paul Skenes
26%
Cristopher Sanchez
16%
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
8%
Freddy Peralta
6%
Chris Sale
9%
Hunter Greene
23%
Tyler Glasnow
5%
Nick Lodolo
5%
Zack Wheeler
6%
Blake Snell
3%
Jacob Misiorowski
21%
Logan Webb
2%
Shohei Ohtani
7%
Nolan McLean
6%
Spencer Strider
6%
Jesus Luzardo
6%
Nick Pivetta
6%
Eury Perez
2%
Brandon Woodruff
6%
Michael King
1%
Spencer Schwellenbach
1%
Mitch Keller
23%
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Feb 18, 2026, 10:18 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus for the 2026 NL Cy Young reflects intense competition among a cluster of high-upside NL Central arms, with Paul Skenes leading narrowly at 26% implied probability due to his electric 2024 rookie dominance—1.96 ERA, 170 strikeouts in 133 innings—but Hunter Greene (22.9%), Mitch Keller (22.8%), and Brewers prospect Jacob Misiorowski (20.6%) staying close on raw velocity, consistency, and minor-league dominance. This tightness stems from emerging prime-age talent (all mid-20s by 2026) in a parity-driven National League, where established aces like Chris Sale and Zack Wheeler lag amid injury risks and heavier workloads, underscoring the wisdom of crowds betting on sustained health and innings volume over past accolades.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated



Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions