Latest National Weather Service guidance for Dallas-Fort Worth pins the March 26 high temperature in the 86-89°F range, aligning with trader consensus where 86-87°F (40.5%) edges out 88-89°F (32.0%) amid a strengthening upper-level ridge over Texas fostering subsidence and clear skies. Ensemble forecasts from GFS and ECMWF models show tight clustering around 87°F, though minor spread reflects uncertainty in ridge amplitude and potential afternoon cloudiness. March climatology favors averages near 70°F, but persistent warm anomalies—driven by El Niño decay and soil moisture deficits—support this outlier warmth. Traders await evening model updates and tomorrow's 12z forecast runs, which could refine the 1-2°F differentiation between leading bins before resolution via official observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Dallas on March 26?
Highest temperature in Dallas on March 26?
86-87°F 40%
88-89°F 31%
84-85°F 18%
90-91°F 8%
$30,123 Vol.
$30,123 Vol.
79°F or below
<1%
80-81°F
1%
82-83°F
2%
84-85°F
18%
86-87°F
40%
88-89°F
31%
90-91°F
8%
92-93°F
2%
94-95°F
1%
96-97°F
<1%
98°F or higher
<1%
86-87°F 40%
88-89°F 31%
84-85°F 18%
90-91°F 8%
$30,123 Vol.
$30,123 Vol.
79°F or below
<1%
80-81°F
1%
82-83°F
2%
84-85°F
18%
86-87°F
40%
88-89°F
31%
90-91°F
8%
92-93°F
2%
94-95°F
1%
96-97°F
<1%
98°F or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Dallas Love Field Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDAL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 22, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDALResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDALResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest National Weather Service guidance for Dallas-Fort Worth pins the March 26 high temperature in the 86-89°F range, aligning with trader consensus where 86-87°F (40.5%) edges out 88-89°F (32.0%) amid a strengthening upper-level ridge over Texas fostering subsidence and clear skies. Ensemble forecasts from GFS and ECMWF models show tight clustering around 87°F, though minor spread reflects uncertainty in ridge amplitude and potential afternoon cloudiness. March climatology favors averages near 70°F, but persistent warm anomalies—driven by El Niño decay and soil moisture deficits—support this outlier warmth. Traders await evening model updates and tomorrow's 12z forecast runs, which could refine the 1-2°F differentiation between leading bins before resolution via official observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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