The European Central Bank's Governing Council held key interest rates steady at 2.00% deposit facility on March 19, 2026, while sharply raising its 2026 inflation forecast to 2.6% from 1.9%, signaling persistent price pressures amid an energy-driven surge that pushed eurozone inflation to 2.5% in March, exceeding the 2% target. Recent data showing core inflation at 2.3% and external shocks like oil price volatility have shifted trader consensus toward no further monetary easing, with economists' polls and IMF projections anticipating rate holds or modest hikes through the year to anchor expectations. Upcoming April 30 and June meetings loom as key tests, but current dynamics reflect a completed cutting cycle, justifying the 78% implied probability against a 2026 rate cut.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$25,957 Vol.
$25,957 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$25,957 Vol.
$25,957 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The European Central Bank's Governing Council held key interest rates steady at 2.00% deposit facility on March 19, 2026, while sharply raising its 2026 inflation forecast to 2.6% from 1.9%, signaling persistent price pressures amid an energy-driven surge that pushed eurozone inflation to 2.5% in March, exceeding the 2% target. Recent data showing core inflation at 2.3% and external shocks like oil price volatility have shifted trader consensus toward no further monetary easing, with economists' polls and IMF projections anticipating rate holds or modest hikes through the year to anchor expectations. Upcoming April 30 and June meetings loom as key tests, but current dynamics reflect a completed cutting cycle, justifying the 78% implied probability against a 2026 rate cut.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ET
Volume
$25,957End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The European Central Bank's Governing Council held key interest rates steady at 2.00% deposit facility on March 19, 2026, while sharply raising its 2026 inflation forecast to 2.6% from 1.9%, signaling persistent price pressures amid an energy-driven surge that pushed eurozone inflation to 2.5% in March, exceeding the 2% target. Recent data showing core inflation at 2.3% and external shocks like oil price volatility have shifted trader consensus toward no further monetary easing, with economists' polls and IMF projections anticipating rate holds or modest hikes through the year to anchor expectations. Upcoming April 30 and June meetings loom as key tests, but current dynamics reflect a completed cutting cycle, justifying the 78% implied probability against a 2026 rate cut.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$25,957End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The European Central Bank's Governing Council held key interest rates steady at 2.00% deposit facility on March 19, 2026, while sharply raising its 2026 inflation forecast to 2.6% from 1.9%, signaling persistent price pressures amid an energy-driven surge that pushed eurozone inflation to 2.5% in March, exceeding the 2% target. Recent data showing core inflation at 2.3% and external shocks like oil price volatility have shifted trader consensus toward no further monetary easing, with economists' polls and IMF projections anticipating rate holds or modest hikes through the year to anchor expectations. Upcoming April 30 and June meetings loom as key tests, but current dynamics reflect a completed cutting cycle, justifying the 78% implied probability against a 2026 rate cut.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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