Elevated euro area inflation projections for 2026, now averaging 2.6 percent due to higher energy costs from Middle East tensions, form the primary driver behind the 88 percent implied probability that the ECB will not cut its deposit facility rate this year. The Governing Council has held the benchmark rate steady at 2.00 percent through its March and April 2026 meetings, adopting a data-dependent stance while signaling readiness to tighten if price pressures persist. Recent first-quarter GDP growth of just 0.1 percent has been overshadowed by these inflation risks, shifting market expectations toward possible hikes as early as June. This consensus reflects traders' assessment of sustained price stability concerns outweighing growth weakness within the resolution window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$27,913 Vol.
$27,913 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$27,913 Vol.
$27,913 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Elevated euro area inflation projections for 2026, now averaging 2.6 percent due to higher energy costs from Middle East tensions, form the primary driver behind the 88 percent implied probability that the ECB will not cut its deposit facility rate this year. The Governing Council has held the benchmark rate steady at 2.00 percent through its March and April 2026 meetings, adopting a data-dependent stance while signaling readiness to tighten if price pressures persist. Recent first-quarter GDP growth of just 0.1 percent has been overshadowed by these inflation risks, shifting market expectations toward possible hikes as early as June. This consensus reflects traders' assessment of sustained price stability concerns outweighing growth weakness within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ET
Volume
$27,913End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Elevated euro area inflation projections for 2026, now averaging 2.6 percent due to higher energy costs from Middle East tensions, form the primary driver behind the 88 percent implied probability that the ECB will not cut its deposit facility rate this year. The Governing Council has held the benchmark rate steady at 2.00 percent through its March and April 2026 meetings, adopting a data-dependent stance while signaling readiness to tighten if price pressures persist. Recent first-quarter GDP growth of just 0.1 percent has been overshadowed by these inflation risks, shifting market expectations toward possible hikes as early as June. This consensus reflects traders' assessment of sustained price stability concerns outweighing growth weakness within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$27,913End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Elevated euro area inflation projections for 2026, now averaging 2.6 percent due to higher energy costs from Middle East tensions, form the primary driver behind the 88 percent implied probability that the ECB will not cut its deposit facility rate this year. The Governing Council has held the benchmark rate steady at 2.00 percent through its March and April 2026 meetings, adopting a data-dependent stance while signaling readiness to tighten if price pressures persist. Recent first-quarter GDP growth of just 0.1 percent has been overshadowed by these inflation risks, shifting market expectations toward possible hikes as early as June. This consensus reflects traders' assessment of sustained price stability concerns outweighing growth weakness within the resolution window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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