Recent ECB actions and inflation data underscore why traders assign a 95.5% implied probability against any rate cut in 2026. The Governing Council raised the deposit facility rate 25 basis points to 2.50% on September 10, citing sustained inflation pressures from Middle East energy shocks, with staff projections holding headline inflation at 3.0% for 2026 before easing to 2.5% in 2027. Hawkish communications from President Lagarde and Governing Council members, combined with upward revisions to core inflation forecasts, signal a data-dependent tightening bias extending into year-end, with markets pricing a potential December hike to 2.75%. While a sharp downside surprise in growth or energy prices could reopen easing discussions, current labor resilience and stable long-term expectations reinforce the consensus against cuts before 2027.