Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 92.1% implied probability against a North Korean invasion of South Korea before 2027, driven by the absence of verifiable invasion preparations amid routine escalatory rhetoric. Recent U.S.-South Korea Freedom Shield military drills, which began March 9, prompted North Korea's Kim Yo Jong to denounce them as "invasion rehearsals" on March 10, followed by a barrage of 10 ballistic missiles into the sea on March 14—the largest in nearly two years. Pyongyang reinforced its "two hostile states" policy toward Seoul in a March 25 parliamentary update, rejecting reunification, yet these actions align with historical patterns of missile tests and verbal threats during annual exercises, lacking troop mobilizations or logistical shifts needed for invasion. Strong U.S.-South Korea deterrence, North Korea's conventional military limitations, and economic constraints sustain the high odds on no invasion, though sudden leadership changes or alliance disruptions could shift sentiment.