Incumbent Democrat Gabe Vasquez commands a double-digit lead in recent NM-02 polls, anchoring trader consensus at an 82.5% implied probability for a Democratic House hold in this competitive Albuquerque-area battleground district. A mid-October RMG Research survey showed Vasquez at 50% to Republican challenger Barbara Autry's 42%, reflecting his fundraising dominance—$1.8 million cash-on-hand versus her $600,000—and strong early voting trends where Democrats claim 55% of ballots cast through October 25. Vasquez's narrow 2022 victory has solidified with Hispanic voter support and national Republican headwinds, absent any fresh GOP momentum ahead of the November 5 election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日NEW
NEW
Nov 4, 2026
民主党
83%
共和党
15%
NEW
NEW
Nov 4, 2026
民主党
$0 Vol.
83%
共和党
$0 Vol.
15%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NM-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Gabe Vasquez commands a double-digit lead in recent NM-02 polls, anchoring trader consensus at an 82.5% implied probability for a Democratic House hold in this competitive Albuquerque-area battleground district. A mid-October RMG Research survey showed Vasquez at 50% to Republican challenger Barbara Autry's 42%, reflecting his fundraising dominance—$1.8 million cash-on-hand versus her $600,000—and strong early voting trends where Democrats claim 55% of ballots cast through October 25. Vasquez's narrow 2022 victory has solidified with Hispanic voter support and national Republican headwinds, absent any fresh GOP momentum ahead of the November 5 election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NM-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ET
音量
$0終了日
Nov 4, 2026マーケット開始日
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NM-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Gabe Vasquez commands a double-digit lead in recent NM-02 polls, anchoring trader consensus at an 82.5% implied probability for a Democratic House hold in this competitive Albuquerque-area battleground district. A mid-October RMG Research survey showed Vasquez at 50% to Republican challenger Barbara Autry's 42%, reflecting his fundraising dominance—$1.8 million cash-on-hand versus her $600,000—and strong early voting trends where Democrats claim 55% of ballots cast through October 25. Vasquez's narrow 2022 victory has solidified with Hispanic voter support and national Republican headwinds, absent any fresh GOP momentum ahead of the November 5 election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NM-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$0終了日
Nov 4, 2026マーケット開始日
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Gabe Vasquez commands a double-digit lead in recent NM-02 polls, anchoring trader consensus at an 82.5% implied probability for a Democratic House hold in this competitive Albuquerque-area battleground district. A mid-October RMG Research survey showed Vasquez at 50% to Republican challenger Barbara Autry's 42%, reflecting his fundraising dominance—$1.8 million cash-on-hand versus her $600,000—and strong early voting trends where Democrats claim 55% of ballots cast through October 25. Vasquez's narrow 2022 victory has solidified with Hispanic voter support and national Republican headwinds, absent any fresh GOP momentum ahead of the November 5 election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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