President Umaro Sissoco Embaló's late-September decree dissolving Guinea-Bissau's National People's Assembly and calling snap legislative elections for December 15 has traders pricing a tight race under the country's proportional representation system, where fragmented support typically yields no outright majority and demands coalition negotiations. PT holds a slim lead at 28.2% implied probability, closely pursued by Platforma Republicana “Nô Kumpu Guiné” at 20.5% and MUNDO-GB at 13.8%, mirroring vote shares from the unstable June 2024 vote where PAIGC-linked factions topped but failed to consolidate power amid chronic political volatility. Dynamics remain competitive due to scarce fresh polling and historical multiparty divisions; separation could emerge from campaign rallies, leader gaffes, diaspora turnout signals, or endorsements before the vote.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日ギニアビサウ国民議会選挙の勝者
ギニアビサウ国民議会選挙の勝者
PT 40.9%
プラットフォーマ・レウプブリカーナ「ノ・クンプ・ギネ」 20.5%
MUNDO-GB 13.8%
FLING 6.2%
$113,043 Vol.
$113,043 Vol.
Nov 23, 2025
PT
28%
プラットフォーマ・レウプブリカーナ「ノ・クンプ・ギネ」
21%
MUNDO-GB
14%
FLING
6%
FREPASNA
6%
PS
1%
PT 40.9%
プラットフォーマ・レウプブリカーナ「ノ・クンプ・ギネ」 20.5%
MUNDO-GB 13.8%
FLING 6.2%
$113,043 Vol.
$113,043 Vol.
Nov 23, 2025
PT
$15,763 Vol.
28%
プラットフォーマ・レウプブリカーナ「ノ・クンプ・ギネ」
$27,609 Vol.
21%
MUNDO-GB
$16,145 Vol.
14%
FLING
$10,534 Vol.
6%
FREPASNA
$22,533 Vol.
6%
PS
$20,458 Vol.
1%
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025.
This market will resolve to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the National People's Assembly of Guinea-Bissau.
If voting in the National People's Assembly of Guinea-Bissau election does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will be resolved in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation or name appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the National People's Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).President Umaro Sissoco Embaló's late-September decree dissolving Guinea-Bissau's National People's Assembly and calling snap legislative elections for December 15 has traders pricing a tight race under the country's proportional representation system, where fragmented support typically yields no outright majority and demands coalition negotiations. PT holds a slim lead at 28.2% implied probability, closely pursued by Platforma Republicana “Nô Kumpu Guiné” at 20.5% and MUNDO-GB at 13.8%, mirroring vote shares from the unstable June 2024 vote where PAIGC-linked factions topped but failed to consolidate power amid chronic political volatility. Dynamics remain competitive due to scarce fresh polling and historical multiparty divisions; separation could emerge from campaign rallies, leader gaffes, diaspora turnout signals, or endorsements before the vote.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025.
This market will resolve to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the National People's Assembly of Guinea-Bissau.
If voting in the National People's Assembly of Guinea-Bissau election does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will be resolved in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation or name appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the National People's Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).
This market will resolve to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the National People's Assembly of Guinea-Bissau.
If voting in the National People's Assembly of Guinea-Bissau election does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will be resolved in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation or name appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the National People's Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).
マーケット開始日： Nov 7, 2025, 11:46 AM ET
音量
$113,043終了日
Nov 23, 2025マーケット開始日
Nov 7, 2025, 11:46 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025.
This market will resolve to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the National People's Assembly of Guinea-Bissau.
If voting in the National People's Assembly of Guinea-Bissau election does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will be resolved in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation or name appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the National People's Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).President Umaro Sissoco Embaló's late-September decree dissolving Guinea-Bissau's National People's Assembly and calling snap legislative elections for December 15 has traders pricing a tight race under the country's proportional representation system, where fragmented support typically yields no outright majority and demands coalition negotiations. PT holds a slim lead at 28.2% implied probability, closely pursued by Platforma Republicana “Nô Kumpu Guiné” at 20.5% and MUNDO-GB at 13.8%, mirroring vote shares from the unstable June 2024 vote where PAIGC-linked factions topped but failed to consolidate power amid chronic political volatility. Dynamics remain competitive due to scarce fresh polling and historical multiparty divisions; separation could emerge from campaign rallies, leader gaffes, diaspora turnout signals, or endorsements before the vote.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025.
This market will resolve to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the National People's Assembly of Guinea-Bissau.
If voting in the National People's Assembly of Guinea-Bissau election does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will be resolved in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation or name appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the National People's Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).
This market will resolve to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the National People's Assembly of Guinea-Bissau.
If voting in the National People's Assembly of Guinea-Bissau election does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will be resolved in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation or name appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the National People's Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).
音量
$113,043終了日
Nov 23, 2025マーケット開始日
Nov 7, 2025, 11:46 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...President Umaro Sissoco Embaló's late-September decree dissolving Guinea-Bissau's National People's Assembly and calling snap legislative elections for December 15 has traders pricing a tight race under the country's proportional representation system, where fragmented support typically yields no outright majority and demands coalition negotiations. PT holds a slim lead at 28.2% implied probability, closely pursued by Platforma Republicana “Nô Kumpu Guiné” at 20.5% and MUNDO-GB at 13.8%, mirroring vote shares from the unstable June 2024 vote where PAIGC-linked factions topped but failed to consolidate power amid chronic political volatility. Dynamics remain competitive due to scarce fresh polling and historical multiparty divisions; separation could emerge from campaign rallies, leader gaffes, diaspora turnout signals, or endorsements before the vote.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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