Polymarket traders overwhelmingly price a 100% implied probability for the Swiss National Bank to hold its policy rate steady at the March 20 meeting, driven by persistently low inflation within the 0-2% target range—January CPI rose just 0.4% year-over-year—and the SNB's explicit December guidance signaling a pause after aggressive 2024 cuts to 1%. This trader consensus, backed by substantial real-money positioning, aligns with subdued economic growth, a resilient Swiss franc curbing import inflation, and synchronized easing from the ECB and Fed reducing rate divergence pressures. Realistic challenges include an upside CPI surprise above 1% or global risk-off flows weakening the CHF, potentially prompting a cut, though precedent suggests the SNB prioritizes franc stability amid low volatility.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourDécision de la Banque nationale suisse en mars ?
Décision de la Banque nationale suisse en mars ?
Aucun changement 100.0%
Baisse <1%
Augmentation <1%
$26,473 Vol.
$26,473 Vol.
19 mars 2026
Baisse
Non
Aucun changement
Oui
Augmentation
Non
Aucun changement 100.0%
Baisse <1%
Augmentation <1%
$26,473 Vol.
$26,473 Vol.
19 mars 2026
Baisse
$17,018 Vol.
Non
Aucun changement
$9,454 Vol.
Oui
Augmentation
$0 Vol.
Non
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is scheduled to issue a press release for its in March 2026 Monetary Policy Assessment, including a decision on the SNB Policy Rate, on March 19, 2026 (https://www.snb.ch/en/services-events/digital-services/event-schedule).
This market will resolve according to the change in the upper bound of the SNB Policy Rate as a result of the decision of this assessment versus the level it was prior to the SNB March 2026 Monetary Policy Assessment.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Swiss National Bank released after its March 2026 Monetary Policy Assessment (https://www.snb.ch/en/the-snb/mandates-goals/monetary-policy/decisions); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Swiss National Banks's press release for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no SNB policy rate decision is issued by the end date of their next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders overwhelmingly price a 100% implied probability for the Swiss National Bank to hold its policy rate steady at the March 20 meeting, driven by persistently low inflation within the 0-2% target range—January CPI rose just 0.4% year-over-year—and the SNB's explicit December guidance signaling a pause after aggressive 2024 cuts to 1%. This trader consensus, backed by substantial real-money positioning, aligns with subdued economic growth, a resilient Swiss franc curbing import inflation, and synchronized easing from the ECB and Fed reducing rate divergence pressures. Realistic challenges include an upside CPI surprise above 1% or global risk-off flows weakening the CHF, potentially prompting a cut, though precedent suggests the SNB prioritizes franc stability amid low volatility.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is scheduled to issue a press release for its in March 2026 Monetary Policy Assessment, including a decision on the SNB Policy Rate, on March 19, 2026 (https://www.snb.ch/en/services-events/digital-services/event-schedule).
This market will resolve according to the change in the upper bound of the SNB Policy Rate as a result of the decision of this assessment versus the level it was prior to the SNB March 2026 Monetary Policy Assessment.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Swiss National Bank released after its March 2026 Monetary Policy Assessment (https://www.snb.ch/en/the-snb/mandates-goals/monetary-policy/decisions); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Swiss National Banks's press release for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no SNB policy rate decision is issued by the end date of their next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve according to the change in the upper bound of the SNB Policy Rate as a result of the decision of this assessment versus the level it was prior to the SNB March 2026 Monetary Policy Assessment.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Swiss National Bank released after its March 2026 Monetary Policy Assessment (https://www.snb.ch/en/the-snb/mandates-goals/monetary-policy/decisions); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Swiss National Banks's press release for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no SNB policy rate decision is issued by the end date of their next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Marché ouvert : Dec 23, 2025, 5:42 PM ET
Volume
$26,473Date de fin
19 mars 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 23, 2025, 5:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Résultat proposé: Non
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Non
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is scheduled to issue a press release for its in March 2026 Monetary Policy Assessment, including a decision on the SNB Policy Rate, on March 19, 2026 (https://www.snb.ch/en/services-events/digital-services/event-schedule).
This market will resolve according to the change in the upper bound of the SNB Policy Rate as a result of the decision of this assessment versus the level it was prior to the SNB March 2026 Monetary Policy Assessment.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Swiss National Bank released after its March 2026 Monetary Policy Assessment (https://www.snb.ch/en/the-snb/mandates-goals/monetary-policy/decisions); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Swiss National Banks's press release for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no SNB policy rate decision is issued by the end date of their next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders overwhelmingly price a 100% implied probability for the Swiss National Bank to hold its policy rate steady at the March 20 meeting, driven by persistently low inflation within the 0-2% target range—January CPI rose just 0.4% year-over-year—and the SNB's explicit December guidance signaling a pause after aggressive 2024 cuts to 1%. This trader consensus, backed by substantial real-money positioning, aligns with subdued economic growth, a resilient Swiss franc curbing import inflation, and synchronized easing from the ECB and Fed reducing rate divergence pressures. Realistic challenges include an upside CPI surprise above 1% or global risk-off flows weakening the CHF, potentially prompting a cut, though precedent suggests the SNB prioritizes franc stability amid low volatility.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is scheduled to issue a press release for its in March 2026 Monetary Policy Assessment, including a decision on the SNB Policy Rate, on March 19, 2026 (https://www.snb.ch/en/services-events/digital-services/event-schedule).
This market will resolve according to the change in the upper bound of the SNB Policy Rate as a result of the decision of this assessment versus the level it was prior to the SNB March 2026 Monetary Policy Assessment.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Swiss National Bank released after its March 2026 Monetary Policy Assessment (https://www.snb.ch/en/the-snb/mandates-goals/monetary-policy/decisions); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Swiss National Banks's press release for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no SNB policy rate decision is issued by the end date of their next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve according to the change in the upper bound of the SNB Policy Rate as a result of the decision of this assessment versus the level it was prior to the SNB March 2026 Monetary Policy Assessment.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Swiss National Bank released after its March 2026 Monetary Policy Assessment (https://www.snb.ch/en/the-snb/mandates-goals/monetary-policy/decisions); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Swiss National Banks's press release for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no SNB policy rate decision is issued by the end date of their next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$26,473Date de fin
19 mars 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 23, 2025, 5:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Résultat proposé: Non
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Non
Polymarket traders overwhelmingly price a 100% implied probability for the Swiss National Bank to hold its policy rate steady at the March 20 meeting, driven by persistently low inflation within the 0-2% target range—January CPI rose just 0.4% year-over-year—and the SNB's explicit December guidance signaling a pause after aggressive 2024 cuts to 1%. This trader consensus, backed by substantial real-money positioning, aligns with subdued economic growth, a resilient Swiss franc curbing import inflation, and synchronized easing from the ECB and Fed reducing rate divergence pressures. Realistic challenges include an upside CPI surprise above 1% or global risk-off flows weakening the CHF, potentially prompting a cut, though precedent suggests the SNB prioritizes franc stability amid low volatility.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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