Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 62.5% implied probability for the Reserve Bank of India to hold its repo rate steady at 5.25% in the April 6-8 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, driven by February 2026 CPI inflation rising to a 10-month high of 3.21%—up from 2.75% in January—yet remaining within the 2-6% target band amid robust FY25/26 GDP growth projections of 7.4%. Geopolitical tensions in West Asia, including oil supply risks and rupee pressures, have tempered rate-cut expectations to 23%, while hike odds at 13.6% reflect upside inflation risks without overheating signals. Upcoming March CPI data and global monetary policy divergence will be key catalysts influencing final positioning.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourAucun changement 73%
Augmentation 23.6%
Diminution 5%
Diminution
24%
Aucun changement
63%
Augmentation
14%
Aucun changement 73%
Augmentation 23.6%
Diminution 5%
Diminution
24%
Aucun changement
63%
Augmentation
14%
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of India after its meeting scheduled for April 8, 2026.
This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy statement for their April 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. The statement will be made available here: https://rbi.org.in/Scripts/BS_PressReleaseDisplay.aspx. If no decision on the policy repo rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Marché ouvert : Feb 6, 2026, 5:04 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of India after its meeting scheduled for April 8, 2026.
This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy statement for their April 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. The statement will be made available here: https://rbi.org.in/Scripts/BS_PressReleaseDisplay.aspx. If no decision on the policy repo rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 62.5% implied probability for the Reserve Bank of India to hold its repo rate steady at 5.25% in the April 6-8 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, driven by February 2026 CPI inflation rising to a 10-month high of 3.21%—up from 2.75% in January—yet remaining within the 2-6% target band amid robust FY25/26 GDP growth projections of 7.4%. Geopolitical tensions in West Asia, including oil supply risks and rupee pressures, have tempered rate-cut expectations to 23%, while hike odds at 13.6% reflect upside inflation risks without overheating signals. Upcoming March CPI data and global monetary policy divergence will be key catalysts influencing final positioning.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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