Current weather models, including ECMWF and GFS ensembles from the Israel Meteorological Service and international sources, project Tel Aviv's March 27 high temperature clustering around 19-21°C under mostly clear skies with light southerly winds, fueling the tight 16.5% odds across 16-22°C outcomes. This consensus reflects late-winter Mediterranean climatology, where average highs hover near 19°C amid variable sea breezes moderating coastal advection; historical data shows March 27 maxima ranging 16-23°C over the past decade. Model spread of ±2-3°C—due to differing cloud forecasts and upper-air patterns—explains the flat probabilities, with traders awaiting today's 12Z updates for potential shifts toward 20-21°C amid a slight warming trend in recent runs. Lower odds below 15°C or above 23°C align with low historical tails.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourLa température la plus élevée à Tel Aviv le 27 mars ?
La température la plus élevée à Tel Aviv le 27 mars ?
19°C 18%
18°C 18%
20°C 17%
16°C 17%
13°C ou moins
8%
14°C
9%
15°C
14%
16°C
17%
17°C
17%
18°C
18%
19°C
18%
20°C
17%
21°C
17%
22°C
17%
23°C ou plus
8%
19°C 18%
18°C 18%
20°C 17%
16°C 17%
13°C ou moins
8%
14°C
9%
15°C
14%
16°C
17%
17°C
17%
18°C
18%
19°C
18%
20°C
17%
21°C
17%
22°C
17%
23°C ou plus
8%
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 23, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Current weather models, including ECMWF and GFS ensembles from the Israel Meteorological Service and international sources, project Tel Aviv's March 27 high temperature clustering around 19-21°C under mostly clear skies with light southerly winds, fueling the tight 16.5% odds across 16-22°C outcomes. This consensus reflects late-winter Mediterranean climatology, where average highs hover near 19°C amid variable sea breezes moderating coastal advection; historical data shows March 27 maxima ranging 16-23°C over the past decade. Model spread of ±2-3°C—due to differing cloud forecasts and upper-air patterns—explains the flat probabilities, with traders awaiting today's 12Z updates for potential shifts toward 20-21°C amid a slight warming trend in recent runs. Lower odds below 15°C or above 23°C align with low historical tails.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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