Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a high temperature cluster of 15-17°C for Wuhan on March 23, driven by ensemble forecasts from GFS and ECMWF models projecting daytime maxima in that narrow band amid lingering spring coolness. Recent developments include a weakening cold air mass from the north, per China Meteorological Administration updates, tempering earlier warmth signals and capping peaks below 18°C with 90%+ model agreement. Historical March 23 highs average 16.2°C at Hankou station, but current cloud cover and light southerly winds introduce 1-2°C uncertainty, differentiating 16°C (highest odds at 34.5%) from neighbors via subtle forecast divergence; traders eye final 00Z runs for resolution shifts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Wuhan on March 23?
Highest temperature in Wuhan on March 23?
15°C 35%
16°C 35%
17°C 18%
14°C 12.7%
11°C or below
1%
12°C
2%
13°C
4%
14°C
15%
15°C
24%
16°C
35%
17°C
28%
18°C
10%
19°C
4%
20°C
3%
21°C or higher
2%
15°C 35%
16°C 35%
17°C 18%
14°C 12.7%
11°C or below
1%
12°C
2%
13°C
4%
14°C
15%
15°C
24%
16°C
35%
17°C
28%
18°C
10%
19°C
4%
20°C
3%
21°C or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 19, 2026, 7:21 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHHResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHHResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a high temperature cluster of 15-17°C for Wuhan on March 23, driven by ensemble forecasts from GFS and ECMWF models projecting daytime maxima in that narrow band amid lingering spring coolness. Recent developments include a weakening cold air mass from the north, per China Meteorological Administration updates, tempering earlier warmth signals and capping peaks below 18°C with 90%+ model agreement. Historical March 23 highs average 16.2°C at Hankou station, but current cloud cover and light southerly winds introduce 1-2°C uncertainty, differentiating 16°C (highest odds at 34.5%) from neighbors via subtle forecast divergence; traders eye final 00Z runs for resolution shifts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes