Trader sentiment clusters around 16-19°C for Wuhan's March 24 high temperature, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts projecting peaks of 16-18°C under persistent southerly winds and high-pressure ridging over central China. The 17°C option leads at 29% implied probability, reflecting a slight warm bias in recent local observations amid urban heat island effects, while 19°C or higher at 24% captures upside risk from potential clear-sky radiational heating. Cooler 13-16°C bids (20-29% combined) hedge against incoming mid-latitude troughs hinted in model spreads, contrasting historical March 24 averages of 15.5°C from China Meteorological Administration data. Resolution hinges on official station readings from Hankou observatory by midnight UTC.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourLa température la plus élevée à Wuhan le 24 mars ?
La température la plus élevée à Wuhan le 24 mars ?
17°C 29%
18°C 20%
19°C ou plus 18%
16°C 17%
9°C ou moins
1%
10°C
1%
11°C
2%
12°C
2%
13°C
17%
14°C
4%
15°C
14%
16°C
21%
17°C
29%
18°C
20%
19°C ou plus
26%
17°C 29%
18°C 20%
19°C ou plus 18%
16°C 17%
9°C ou moins
1%
10°C
1%
11°C
2%
12°C
2%
13°C
17%
14°C
4%
15°C
14%
16°C
21%
17°C
29%
18°C
20%
19°C ou plus
26%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 19, 2026, 7:05 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHHResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHHResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment clusters around 16-19°C for Wuhan's March 24 high temperature, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts projecting peaks of 16-18°C under persistent southerly winds and high-pressure ridging over central China. The 17°C option leads at 29% implied probability, reflecting a slight warm bias in recent local observations amid urban heat island effects, while 19°C or higher at 24% captures upside risk from potential clear-sky radiational heating. Cooler 13-16°C bids (20-29% combined) hedge against incoming mid-latitude troughs hinted in model spreads, contrasting historical March 24 averages of 15.5°C from China Meteorological Administration data. Resolution hinges on official station readings from Hankou observatory by midnight UTC.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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