Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors a high temperature of 46-47°F in Chicago on March 18, driven by the latest ensemble forecasts from NOAA's Global Forecast System (GFS) and European Centre models, which converge on daytime highs in this narrow range amid persistent cool northerly flows and lingering winter-like conditions over the Midwest. Official observations show current anomalies aligning with below-average March norms—historical highs average 43°F—bolstered by high-pressure ridging suppressing warmth. This positioning reflects low model spread and verified short-range accuracy of high-resolution rapid refresh (HRRR) guidance. Realistic challenges include an unexpected warm front or jet streak shift, potentially lifting temps to 50°F+, though probability remains under 1% per probabilistic outputs.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourLa température la plus élevée à Chicago le 18 mars ?
La température la plus élevée à Chicago le 18 mars ?
46-47 °F 100.0%
33°F ou moins <1%
34-35 °F <1%
36-37°F <1%
$0.00 Vol.
$0.00 Vol.
33°F ou moins
Non
34-35 °F
Non
36-37°F
Non
38-39°F
Non
40-41°F
Non
42-43 °F
Non
44-45°F
Non
46-47 °F
Oui
48-49°F
Non
50-51 °F
Non
52°F ou plus
Non
46-47 °F 100.0%
33°F ou moins <1%
34-35 °F <1%
36-37°F <1%
$0.00 Vol.
$0.00 Vol.
33°F ou moins
Non
34-35 °F
Non
36-37°F
Non
38-39°F
Non
40-41°F
Non
42-43 °F
Non
44-45°F
Non
46-47 °F
Oui
48-49°F
Non
50-51 °F
Non
52°F ou plus
Non
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 14, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: Non
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Non
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors a high temperature of 46-47°F in Chicago on March 18, driven by the latest ensemble forecasts from NOAA's Global Forecast System (GFS) and European Centre models, which converge on daytime highs in this narrow range amid persistent cool northerly flows and lingering winter-like conditions over the Midwest. Official observations show current anomalies aligning with below-average March norms—historical highs average 43°F—bolstered by high-pressure ridging suppressing warmth. This positioning reflects low model spread and verified short-range accuracy of high-resolution rapid refresh (HRRR) guidance. Realistic challenges include an unexpected warm front or jet streak shift, potentially lifting temps to 50°F+, though probability remains under 1% per probabilistic outputs.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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