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Will Trump create External Revenue Service in first 100 days?

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Will Trump create External Revenue Service in first 100 days?

<1% chance
Polymarket

$59,037 Vol.

<1% chance
Polymarket

$59,037 Vol.

On January 14, Donald Trump announced that he would create an "External Revenue Service" tasked with collecting tariffs and other forms of revenue from foreign nations. You can read more about that here: https://apnews.com/article/irs-trump-tax-revenues-tariffs-eef2ab6930a8672a418af27f61efaed8

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump as President of the United States signs any federal legislation or performs any executive action by April 29, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, that has the effect of creating an External Revenue Service. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any law or executive action meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.

Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.

The title of such an agency may vary, however any agency established with the express purpose of collecting tariffs and/or other forms of revenue from foreign nations will count toward a "Yes" resolution.

This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration.
Volume
$59,037
End Date
Apr 29, 2025
Market Opened
Jan 16, 2025, 12:47 PM ET
On January 14, Donald Trump announced that he would create an "External Revenue Service" tasked with collecting tariffs and other forms of revenue from foreign nations. You can read more about that here: https://apnews.com/article/irs-trump-tax-revenues-tariffs-eef2ab6930a8672a418af27f61efaed8 This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump as President of the United States signs any federal legislation or performs any executive action by April 29, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, that has the effect of creating an External Revenue Service. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any law or executive action meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions. Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect. The title of such an agency may vary, however any agency established with the express purpose of collecting tariffs and/or other forms of revenue from foreign nations will count toward a "Yes" resolution. This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

On January 14, Donald Trump announced that he would create an "External Revenue Service" tasked with collecting tariffs and other forms of revenue from foreign nations. You can read more about that here: https://apnews.com/article/irs-trump-tax-revenues-tariffs-eef2ab6930a8672a418af27f61efaed8

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump as President of the United States signs any federal legislation or performs any executive action by April 29, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, that has the effect of creating an External Revenue Service. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any law or executive action meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.

Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.

The title of such an agency may vary, however any agency established with the express purpose of collecting tariffs and/or other forms of revenue from foreign nations will count toward a "Yes" resolution.

This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration.
Volume
$59,037
End Date
Apr 29, 2025
Market Opened
Jan 16, 2025, 12:47 PM ET
On January 14, Donald Trump announced that he would create an "External Revenue Service" tasked with collecting tariffs and other forms of revenue from foreign nations. You can read more about that here: https://apnews.com/article/irs-trump-tax-revenues-tariffs-eef2ab6930a8672a418af27f61efaed8 This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump as President of the United States signs any federal legislation or performs any executive action by April 29, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, that has the effect of creating an External Revenue Service. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any law or executive action meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions. Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect. The title of such an agency may vary, however any agency established with the express purpose of collecting tariffs and/or other forms of revenue from foreign nations will count toward a "Yes" resolution. This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will Trump create External Revenue Service in first 100 days?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 0% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 0¢, the market collectively assigns a 0% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Will Trump create External Revenue Service in first 100 days?" has generated $59K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 16, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Will Trump create External Revenue Service in first 100 days?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Will Trump create External Revenue Service in first 100 days?" is 0% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 0% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Will Trump create External Revenue Service in first 100 days?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.