The March 31, 2026, deadline elapsed without President Trump issuing an executive order, signing legislation, or formally launching a tariff dividend program—such as $2,000 rebate checks funded by new tariff revenues—prompting unanimous trader consensus at 100% for "No." Despite executive actions imposing a 10% universal import tariff and higher reciprocal rates on select nations since February, alongside introduced congressional bills in mid-March, no payments were authorized or distributed by the cutoff, hampered by Supreme Court limits on unilateral tariff authority and fiscal debates over revenue sufficiency. Traders' near-certain pricing reflects the objective timeline lapse, with slim odds of retroactive resolution shifts via disputed official announcements or reinterpretations of program criteria.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated$168,338 Vol.
$168,338 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
$168,338 Vol.
$168,338 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The March 31, 2026, deadline elapsed without President Trump issuing an executive order, signing legislation, or formally launching a tariff dividend program—such as $2,000 rebate checks funded by new tariff revenues—prompting unanimous trader consensus at 100% for "No." Despite executive actions imposing a 10% universal import tariff and higher reciprocal rates on select nations since February, alongside introduced congressional bills in mid-March, no payments were authorized or distributed by the cutoff, hampered by Supreme Court limits on unilateral tariff authority and fiscal debates over revenue sufficiency. Traders' near-certain pricing reflects the objective timeline lapse, with slim odds of retroactive resolution shifts via disputed official announcements or reinterpretations of program criteria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 11, 2025, 11:45 AM ET
Volume
$168,338End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 11, 2025, 11:45 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The March 31, 2026, deadline elapsed without President Trump issuing an executive order, signing legislation, or formally launching a tariff dividend program—such as $2,000 rebate checks funded by new tariff revenues—prompting unanimous trader consensus at 100% for "No." Despite executive actions imposing a 10% universal import tariff and higher reciprocal rates on select nations since February, alongside introduced congressional bills in mid-March, no payments were authorized or distributed by the cutoff, hampered by Supreme Court limits on unilateral tariff authority and fiscal debates over revenue sufficiency. Traders' near-certain pricing reflects the objective timeline lapse, with slim odds of retroactive resolution shifts via disputed official announcements or reinterpretations of program criteria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$168,338End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 11, 2025, 11:45 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
The March 31, 2026, deadline elapsed without President Trump issuing an executive order, signing legislation, or formally launching a tariff dividend program—such as $2,000 rebate checks funded by new tariff revenues—prompting unanimous trader consensus at 100% for "No." Despite executive actions imposing a 10% universal import tariff and higher reciprocal rates on select nations since February, alongside introduced congressional bills in mid-March, no payments were authorized or distributed by the cutoff, hampered by Supreme Court limits on unilateral tariff authority and fiscal debates over revenue sufficiency. Traders' near-certain pricing reflects the objective timeline lapse, with slim odds of retroactive resolution shifts via disputed official announcements or reinterpretations of program criteria.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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