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Politics·Milei

Will the US deport illegal migrants to Argentina by March 31?

Market icon
Politics·Milei

Will the US deport illegal migrants to Argentina by March 31?

2% chance
Polymarket
NEW
2% chance
Polymarket
NEW
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any illegal alien who is not a citizen of Argentina in the custody of U.S. law enforcement or correctional authorities, is transferred to Argentina for the purpose of incarceration or deportation by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". To qualify, an illegal alien must be transferred to Argentina, and physically enter the terrestrial territory. Entering the maritime territory or airspace will not qualify. Any transfer meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or reversed by judicial or other actions. The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 98.2% "No" probability for US deportation of illegal migrants to Argentina by March 31, driven by the absence of any confirmed flights, transfers, or enabling bilateral agreement despite early-year speculation. January reports of advanced talks between Washington and Buenos Aires for third-country deportations—targeting recent border crossers—were swiftly denied by Argentine President Milei, with no subsequent diplomatic progress, official announcements from DHS or ICE, or logistical preparations reported in the past 60 days. Mass deportation efforts have prioritized home countries and partners like El Salvador. A last-minute executive agreement and rapid execution remains theoretically possible but faces immense barriers given the three-day window.

Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 98.2% "No" probability for US deportation of illegal migrants to Argentina by March 31, driven by the absence of any confirmed flights, transfers, or enabling bilateral agreement despite early-year speculation. January reports of advanced talks between Washington and Buenos Aires for third-country deportations—targeting recent border crossers—were swiftly denied by Argentine President Milei, with no subsequent diplomatic progress, official announcements from DHS or ICE, or logistical preparations reported in the past 60 days. Mass deportation efforts have prioritized home countries and partners like El Salvador. A last-minute executive agreement and rapid execution remains theoretically possible but faces immense barriers given the three-day window.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any illegal alien who is not a citizen of Argentina in the custody of U.S. law enforcement or correctional authorities, is transferred to Argentina for the purpose of incarceration or deportation by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". To qualify, an illegal alien must be transferred to Argentina, and physically enter the terrestrial territory. Entering the maritime territory or airspace will not qualify. Any transfer meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or reversed by judicial or other actions. The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 98.2% "No" probability for US deportation of illegal migrants to Argentina by March 31, driven by the absence of any confirmed flights, transfers, or enabling bilateral agreement despite early-year speculation. January reports of advanced talks between Washington and Buenos Aires for third-country deportations—targeting recent border crossers—were swiftly denied by Argentine President Milei, with no subsequent diplomatic progress, official announcements from DHS or ICE, or logistical preparations reported in the past 60 days. Mass deportation efforts have prioritized home countries and partners like El Salvador. A last-minute executive agreement and rapid execution remains theoretically possible but faces immense barriers given the three-day window.

Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 98.2% "No" probability for US deportation of illegal migrants to Argentina by March 31, driven by the absence of any confirmed flights, transfers, or enabling bilateral agreement despite early-year speculation. January reports of advanced talks between Washington and Buenos Aires for third-country deportations—targeting recent border crossers—were swiftly denied by Argentine President Milei, with no subsequent diplomatic progress, official announcements from DHS or ICE, or logistical preparations reported in the past 60 days. Mass deportation efforts have prioritized home countries and partners like El Salvador. A last-minute executive agreement and rapid execution remains theoretically possible but faces immense barriers given the three-day window.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will the US deport illegal migrants to Argentina by March 31?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 2% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 2¢, the market collectively assigns a 2% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Will the US deport illegal migrants to Argentina by March 31?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jan 30, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Will the US deport illegal migrants to Argentina by March 31?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Will the US deport illegal migrants to Argentina by March 31?" is 2% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 2% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Will the US deport illegal migrants to Argentina by March 31?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.