Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors "No" at 97.7% implied probability for U.S. deportations of illegal migrants to Argentina by March 31, driven by stalled bilateral talks reported in late January 2026 and Argentine President Milei's prompt denial of any such third-country arrangement. No subsequent official announcements from DHS, ICE, or the White House have materialized, with zero deportation flights or migrants transferred despite Trump's mass deportation push via executive actions and CBP initiatives. Logistical barriers, including negotiated agreements and aviation coordination, remain unaddressed amid the three-day deadline. A sudden deal or emergency flight could theoretically shift odds, though traders price this as highly improbable given the absence of recent diplomatic or operational progress.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedNEW
NEW
Mar 31, 2026
NEW
NEW
Mar 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any illegal alien who is not a citizen of Argentina in the custody of U.S. law enforcement or correctional authorities, is transferred to Argentina for the purpose of incarceration or deportation by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
To qualify, an illegal alien must be transferred to Argentina, and physically enter the terrestrial territory. Entering the maritime territory or airspace will not qualify.
Any transfer meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or reversed by judicial or other actions.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors "No" at 97.7% implied probability for U.S. deportations of illegal migrants to Argentina by March 31, driven by stalled bilateral talks reported in late January 2026 and Argentine President Milei's prompt denial of any such third-country arrangement. No subsequent official announcements from DHS, ICE, or the White House have materialized, with zero deportation flights or migrants transferred despite Trump's mass deportation push via executive actions and CBP initiatives. Logistical barriers, including negotiated agreements and aviation coordination, remain unaddressed amid the three-day deadline. A sudden deal or emergency flight could theoretically shift odds, though traders price this as highly improbable given the absence of recent diplomatic or operational progress.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any illegal alien who is not a citizen of Argentina in the custody of U.S. law enforcement or correctional authorities, is transferred to Argentina for the purpose of incarceration or deportation by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
To qualify, an illegal alien must be transferred to Argentina, and physically enter the terrestrial territory. Entering the maritime territory or airspace will not qualify.
Any transfer meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or reversed by judicial or other actions.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
To qualify, an illegal alien must be transferred to Argentina, and physically enter the terrestrial territory. Entering the maritime territory or airspace will not qualify.
Any transfer meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or reversed by judicial or other actions.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jan 30, 2026, 6:35 PM ET
Volume
$6,526End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 30, 2026, 6:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any illegal alien who is not a citizen of Argentina in the custody of U.S. law enforcement or correctional authorities, is transferred to Argentina for the purpose of incarceration or deportation by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
To qualify, an illegal alien must be transferred to Argentina, and physically enter the terrestrial territory. Entering the maritime territory or airspace will not qualify.
Any transfer meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or reversed by judicial or other actions.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors "No" at 97.7% implied probability for U.S. deportations of illegal migrants to Argentina by March 31, driven by stalled bilateral talks reported in late January 2026 and Argentine President Milei's prompt denial of any such third-country arrangement. No subsequent official announcements from DHS, ICE, or the White House have materialized, with zero deportation flights or migrants transferred despite Trump's mass deportation push via executive actions and CBP initiatives. Logistical barriers, including negotiated agreements and aviation coordination, remain unaddressed amid the three-day deadline. A sudden deal or emergency flight could theoretically shift odds, though traders price this as highly improbable given the absence of recent diplomatic or operational progress.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any illegal alien who is not a citizen of Argentina in the custody of U.S. law enforcement or correctional authorities, is transferred to Argentina for the purpose of incarceration or deportation by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
To qualify, an illegal alien must be transferred to Argentina, and physically enter the terrestrial territory. Entering the maritime territory or airspace will not qualify.
Any transfer meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or reversed by judicial or other actions.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
To qualify, an illegal alien must be transferred to Argentina, and physically enter the terrestrial territory. Entering the maritime territory or airspace will not qualify.
Any transfer meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or reversed by judicial or other actions.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$6,526End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 30, 2026, 6:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors "No" at 97.7% implied probability for U.S. deportations of illegal migrants to Argentina by March 31, driven by stalled bilateral talks reported in late January 2026 and Argentine President Milei's prompt denial of any such third-country arrangement. No subsequent official announcements from DHS, ICE, or the White House have materialized, with zero deportation flights or migrants transferred despite Trump's mass deportation push via executive actions and CBP initiatives. Logistical barriers, including negotiated agreements and aviation coordination, remain unaddressed amid the three-day deadline. A sudden deal or emergency flight could theoretically shift odds, though traders price this as highly improbable given the absence of recent diplomatic or operational progress.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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