Market icon
Politics·Elon Musk

Will America be profitable any month in 2025?

Market icon
Politics·Elon Musk

Will America be profitable any month in 2025?

>99% chance
Polymarket

$43,741 Vol.

>99% chance
Polymarket

$43,741 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a surplus for any month in 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).

The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury. If every month has not been published by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible source will be used.
Volume
$43,741
End Date
Dec 31, 2025
Market Opened
Jan 31, 2025, 5:37 PM ET

Resolver

0x6A9D22261...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a surplus for any month in 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury. If every month has not been published by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible source will be used.

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a surplus for any month in 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).

The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury. If every month has not been published by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible source will be used.
Volume
$43,741
End Date
Dec 31, 2025
Market Opened
Jan 31, 2025, 5:37 PM ET

Resolver

0x6A9D22261...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a surplus for any month in 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury. If every month has not been published by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible source will be used.

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

Related

Market icon

Will the 10-year treasury yield hit 4.4% by March 31?

7%
Market icon

US recession by end of 2026?

26%
Market icon

Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.9% before 2027?

86%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Will America be profitable any month in 2025?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 100% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 100¢, the market collectively assigns a 100% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Will America be profitable any month in 2025?" has generated $43.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 31, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Will America be profitable any month in 2025?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Will America be profitable any month in 2025?" is 100% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 100% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Will America be profitable any month in 2025?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.