Name: Will 51+ senators vote for the next reconciliation bill?
Start: 2025-06-30T20:48:22.06057Z
End: 2025-07-31T00:00:00Z

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This market will resolve to "Yes" if 51 or more U.S. Senator vote in favor of the next reconciliation bill in the Senate by December 31, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the first final passage vote (not a motion to proceed or a cloture vote), regardless of if the bill is passed.

The resolutions source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will 51+ senators vote for the next reconciliation bill?

This market will resolve "Yes" if the bill listed is signed into law by the President of the United States by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A bill will only qualify if it receives the President’s signature and becomes law through the normal legislative process. Vetoed bills, bills passed only by one chamber, or those that fail to reach the President’s desk, will not qualify.

The primary resolution source will be official information from Congress.gov or the White House; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used if ambiguity arises.

Will the Guidance Clarity Act of 2025 (S.81) be signed into law by December 31 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a constitutional amendment establishing term limits for members of the United States Congress is ratified by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. 

Congressional term limits in 2025? 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a motion to invoke cloture and end debate on any part of the legislative process, with such a cloture motion receiving Yea votes from fewer than three-fifths of the Senators by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".

Confirmations are considered part of the Senate’s “advice and consent” function, not part of the Senate’s “legislative process,” and will therefore not count towards this market's resolution.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. government.

GOP uses 'Nuclear Option' to break filibuster by March 31, 2026?

On March 11, Senator Lummis reintroduced the BITCOIN Act, which aims to purchase 1,000,000 Bitcoin. You can read more about that here: https://x.com/BitcoinMagazine/status/1899447562790211883

This market will resolve to "Yes" if this act passes the Senate by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Senate passes bill to purchase 1m Bitcoin in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any house of any US state legislature holds a vote, as part of its standard legislative process, on a bill, resolution, or constitutional amendment whose main purpose is for the state to secede from the United States, or to otherwise declare its support for such a secession, by June 30, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying measure must clearly state its purpose as part of a process for the state to leave, withdraw from, dissolve political ties with, declare independence from, or otherwise terminate its membership in the United States; measures which merely study, explore, or explain a possibility of secession or independence will not qualify. Informal measures of consensus taking such as straw polls or whip counts will not qualify toward this market's resolution.

A vote on a resolution or other statement without binding legal effect but declaring the state's explicit support for secession will qualify toward this market's resolution.

Only a vote taken by a full chamber will qualify toward this market's resolution. Votes held by committees/subcommittees, etc., will not qualify.

This market's primary resolution source will be official records of qualifying votes from relevant state governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Any US state legislature votes on secession by June 30, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump issues a presidential veto of any bill by December 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be official congressional records and a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Trump veto a bill in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 (H.R.3633) is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source is Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/3633) and other official information from the government of the United States, however other credible reporting may be used.

Clarity Act signed into law in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the “Yes” option for 'Republican Party' in the "Which party will win the Senate in 2026?" market  (https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-senate-in-2026?) is priced under the listed value for any four-hour period ending by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or earlier. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A tie in the number of minutes will not suffice.

The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for 'Republican Party' in the "Which party will win the Senate in 2026?" market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/index/2026-us-senate-election-republican-odds-under-60-by-march-31 or through the “Resolution” tab with the time set to show the four-hour window. Both interfaces display the same underlying data.

Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com.

2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds under 60% by March 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.  

Supreme Court vacancy in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party, the Democratic Party becomes the favorite in the "Which party will win the Senate in 2026?" market (https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-senate-in-2026?tid=1764796601244) for any four-hour period ending by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or earlier. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The Democratic Party will be considered to have become the favorite for any four-hour period if it is ahead of the Republican Party in more individual minutes than the Republican Party is ahead of the Democratic Party during a qualifying time period.

A tie in the number of minutes will not qualify.

The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for the “Which party will win the Senate in 2026?” market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/index/2026-us-senate-election-democrats-flip-republicans-by or through the “Resolution” tab with the time set to show the four-hour window. Both interfaces display the same underlying data.

Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com.

2026 U.S. Senate Election: Democrats flip Republicans by March 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" any portion of Canada is formally annexed into the United States of America and becomes the 51st state by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An official agreement that is announced will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when it is slated to go into effect. If any territory that includes no portion of Canadian land is made the 51st US state within this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Canada join US as 51st state in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Chuck Schumer remains the Minority Leader of the United States Senate without interruption from March 17, 2025, through December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Schumer remain Minority Leader through 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.  

Supreme Court vacancy in 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a U.S government funding lapse occurs on January 31, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A funding lapse is defined as the President failing to sign the relevant bill(s) extending government funding by January 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If a bill extending the funding of the U.S. government is passed and signed by the acting President before January 31, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes," any funding lapse will count. If only a portion of the US government is covered by any signed bill(s) extending funding of the US government, and a portion of the US government goes unfunded, this market will still resolve to "Yes".

The primary resolution for this source will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

U.S. Government Funding Lapse on January 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Chuck Schumer remains the Minority Leader of the United States Senate without interruption from November 14, 2025 through March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Schumer remain Minority Leader through March 31?

This market will resolve according to the party that controls the Senate following the 2026 U.S. Senate elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.

Senate control is defined as having more than half of the voting Senate members, or half of the voting Senate members and the Vice Presidency.

If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Majority Leader of the US Senate is selected following the 2026 US general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the majority leader is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected majority leader does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.

Determination of which party controls the Senate after the 2026 US Senate elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.

Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Mitch McConnell formally announces an intention to step down or otherwise vacates his U.S. Senate seat before his current term is scheduled to end (January 3, 2027, 11:59 PM ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

An announcement will qualify only if it indicates that McConnell will leave office prior to the scheduled end of his term. Statements reaffirming an existing plan to retire at the end of his term will not qualify.

The primary resolution sources will be official statements from Mitch McConnell, his office or representatives, and/or official communications from the U.S. Senate or government.

Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?

This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives by simple majority vote to approve or pass one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump, between July 24, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used.

Trump impeached by end of 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Liberal Party of Canada holds a majority of seats in the House of Commons for any period of time between December 12, 2025 and June 30, 2026, otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve to "No" if Parliament is dissolved before June 30, 2026. 

This markets resolution will be based solely on the number of seats held by the Liberal Party of Canada, not any alliance or coalition of which it may be a part.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Canadian government or a consensus of credible reporting.

Liberal majority in Canadian Parliament by June 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if John Fetterman announces that he will resign from his position as  United States senator from Pennsylvania, or otherwise ceases to be Senator for any length of time, between May 6, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Note that an announcement of his resignation before the resolution date will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of if/when he actually steps down.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United States of America or official statements by Fetterman or his representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

Fetterman out in 2025?

The 2026 midterm elections for the US Senate is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Republicans hold fewer seats in the Senate for any state that Trump won in the 2024 US presidential election as a result of the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

Initial seat counts will be based on the composition of the US Senate as of November 2, 2026, 11:59PM ET.

This market's resolution will be solely based on the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate for any state won by Trump in the 2024 Presidential election. The loss of particular seat will not count towards a resolution for this market; only the total number of seats held by the Republican Party in a given state will be considered. (e.g. The loss of one of a state's seats by the Republican Party followed by the gain of the other seat would not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".)

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

For the purposes of this market, states won by Trump in the 2024 Presidential election include Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia, Wisconsin, and Wyoming. This list is determined by the winner of the electoral votes for each state in the 2024 Presidential election. In states such as Maine and Nebraska, where electoral votes are allocated separately by congressional districts as well as to the statewide winner, only the electoral votes allocated to the statewide winner are considered.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Will Republicans lose a seat in the US Senate for any state Trump won in 2024?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs a bill into law or performs any executive action changing US tax law to eliminate capital gains tax on any cryptocurrency assets by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Such a bill must apply to US taxpaying persons in general; if a law applies only to specific companies or institutions, it will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market.

If capital gains is eliminated only for specific types or classes of crypto assets (e.g., only Bitcoin or Ethereum, only American issued cryptocurrencies, or only NFTs), it will still count toward a "Yes" resolution for this market.

If the bill is signed into law, or executive action is instituted before the resolution date, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of when it takes effect.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Trump eliminates capital gains tax on crypto in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs a bill into law or performs any executive action changing US tax law to establish a de minimis tax exemption on cryptocurrency transactions by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Such a bill must apply to US taxpaying persons in general; if a law applies only to specific companies or institutions, it will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market.

If the tax exemption only applies for specific types or classes of crypto assets (e.g., only Bitcoin or Ethereum, only American issued cryptocurrencies, or only NFTs), it will still count toward a "Yes" resolution for this market.

If the bill is signed into law, or executive action is instituted before the resolution date, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of when it takes effect.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Trump enacts a de minimis crypto tax exemption before 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US government sells any of its Bitcoin by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the US government and on-chain data, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will the US Government sell Bitcoin by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs any bill into law that aims to repeal or alter presidential term limits as defined by the 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, or if the U.S. Supreme Court rules in a way that would permit a president to serve more than two terms by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Any law signed meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.

This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration and U.S. Supreme Court decisions.

Will Trump repeal Presidential term limits in 2025?

This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of whether enhanced ACA premium tax credits will be extended in 2025 (https://polymarket.com/event/enhanced-aca-premium-tax-credits-extended-in-2025?) and according to which party will win the House in 2026 (https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026?).

The rules and resolution criteria are as follows:

1. Enhanced ACA premium tax credits extended in 2025?
Affordable Care Act (ACA) enhanced premium tax credits are set to expire at the end of 2025 if not extended by the federal government.

This market will resolve according to whether a bill extending the enhanced ACA premium tax credits beyond 2025 is signed into federal law by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. 

A qualifying bill may extend the enhanced ACA premium tax credits in any form, including shorter extensions, phased-down benefits, or narrowed eligibility, as long as the bill clearly continues enhanced premium tax credits that have wider eligibility and/or lower required income contributions relative to baseline ACA premium tax credits that would otherwise apply after 2025.

A bill replacing the ACA enhanced premium tax credits with an alternative form of healthcare subsidy, such as direct cash payments to a health savings account, will not qualify.

If the bill is signed into law before 2026, it will qualify to resolve this market, regardless of when it takes effect.

The primary source of resolution will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

2. Which party will win the House in 2026?
This market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.

House control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives.

If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.

Determination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.

Will ACA premium tax credits not be extended and will the Democratic Party win the House in 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez announces that she is running for Senate in the 2026 midterm election, between April 14, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of resolving this market, an announcement by AOC will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether she actually filed a nomination to run, or whether she actually files a nomination to run in the future.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by AOC (ex: via speech, social media, etc.) or her official or legal representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

AOC announces senate run in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Fed rate hike in 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump issues a presidential veto, by December 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET, of any bill or resolution that explicitly mandates, compels, or formally calls for the public release of documents related to Jeffrey Epstein. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

The resolution source will be official congressional records and a consensus of credible reporting.

Trump vetoes Epstein disclosure bill/resolution in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if credible reporting confirms that any entity enters into an agreement to acquire the listed company by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Mergers where the listed company is subsumed by another entity will count toward a "Yes" resolution.

An announced agreement between the listed company and an acquiring entity will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the acquisition is ultimately completed.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the listed company and/or its leadership; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will 51+ senators vote for the next reconciliation bill?

Market Context

Will 51+ senators vote for the next reconciliation bill?

Rules

Will 51+ senators vote for the next reconciliation bill?

Market Context

Will 51+ senators vote for the next reconciliation bill?

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