Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?

Name: Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?
Start: 2025-08-05T17:33:33.863763Z
End: 2026-12-31T00:00:00Z

$137,875,128 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026

Kevin Hassett 40%

Kevin Warsh 39%

Christopher Waller 10.9%

Rick Rieder 4.9%

OUTCOME

% CHANCE

Kevin Hassett
$7,967,110 Vol.
40%
0123456789
%

Kevin Warsh
$3,874,414 Vol.
39%
0123456789
%

Christopher Waller
$3,204,387 Vol.
11%
0123456789
%

Rick Rieder
$2,362,777 Vol.
5%
0123456789
%

Scott Bessent
$3,094,944 Vol.
2%
0123456789
%

Judy Shelton
$3,385,491 Vol.
2%
0123456789
%

Michelle Bowman
$2,710,434 Vol.
2%
0123456789
%

David Malpass
$2,126,270 Vol.
<1%
0123456789
%

Stephen Miran
$2,677,300 Vol.
<1%

No one nominated before 2027
$1,641,577 Vol.
<1%

Marc Sumerlin
$2,288,945 Vol.
<1%
0123456789
%

Jerome Powell
$2,676,043 Vol.
<1%

Bill Pulte
$11,876,338 Vol.
<1%

Howard Lutnick
$1,245,830 Vol.
<1%

Arthur Laffer
$7,800,319 Vol.
<1%

Larry Kudlow
$9,758,133 Vol.
<1%
0123456789
%

Ron Paul
$4,125,419 Vol.
<1%

James Bullard
$1,682,539 Vol.
<1%

David Zervos
$1,905,930 Vol.
<1%
0123456789
%

Lorie K. Logan
$1,866,074 Vol.
<1%

Philip Jefferson
$4,515,158 Vol.
<1%

Janet Yellen
$19,390,427 Vol.
<1%

Larry Lindsey
$4,980,059 Vol.
<1%

Barron Trump
$12,155,421 Vol.
<1%

Donald Trump
$18,558,785 Vol.
<1%

Rules

This market will resolve according to the next individual Donald Trump, as President of the United States, formally nominates to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.

Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Created At: Aug 5, 2025, 5:21 PM UTC

Volume

$137,875,128

End Date

Dec 31, 2026

Created At

Aug 5, 2025, 5:21 PM UTC

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

Beware of external links.

$137,875,128 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026

Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?

Kevin Hassett 40%

Kevin Warsh 39%

Christopher Waller 10.9%

Rick Rieder 4.9%

OUTCOME

% CHANCE

Kevin Hassett

$7,967,110 Vol.

40%

Kevin Warsh

$3,874,414 Vol.

39%

Christopher Waller

$3,204,387 Vol.

11%

Rick Rieder

$2,362,777 Vol.

Scott Bessent

$3,094,944 Vol.

Judy Shelton

$3,385,491 Vol.

Michelle Bowman

$2,710,434 Vol.

David Malpass

$2,126,270 Vol.

<1%

Stephen Miran

$2,677,300 Vol.

<1%

No one nominated before 2027

$1,641,577 Vol.

<1%

Marc Sumerlin

$2,288,945 Vol.

<1%

Jerome Powell

$2,676,043 Vol.

<1%

Bill Pulte

$11,876,338 Vol.

<1%

Howard Lutnick

$1,245,830 Vol.

<1%

Arthur Laffer

$7,800,319 Vol.

<1%

Larry Kudlow

$9,758,133 Vol.

<1%

Ron Paul

$4,125,419 Vol.

<1%

James Bullard

$1,682,539 Vol.

<1%

David Zervos

$1,905,930 Vol.

<1%

Lorie K. Logan

$1,866,074 Vol.

<1%

Philip Jefferson

$4,515,158 Vol.

<1%

Janet Yellen

$19,390,427 Vol.

<1%

Larry Lindsey

$4,980,059 Vol.

<1%

Barron Trump

$12,155,421 Vol.

<1%

Donald Trump

$18,558,785 Vol.

<1%

About

Volume

$137,875,128

End Date

Dec 31, 2026

Created At

Aug 5, 2025, 5:21 PM UTC

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

Will Donald Trump not announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve before February 2026?

20%

Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by June 30, 2026?

99%

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?

10%

Beware of external links.

Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?

Kevin Hassett
$7,967,110 Vol.
40%
0123456789
%

Kevin Warsh
$3,874,414 Vol.
39%
0123456789
%

Christopher Waller
$3,204,387 Vol.
11%
0123456789
%

Rick Rieder
$2,362,777 Vol.
5%
0123456789
%

Scott Bessent
$3,094,944 Vol.
2%
0123456789
%

Judy Shelton
$3,385,491 Vol.
2%
0123456789
%

Michelle Bowman
$2,710,434 Vol.
2%
0123456789
%

David Malpass
$2,126,270 Vol.
<1%
0123456789
%

Stephen Miran
$2,677,300 Vol.
<1%

No one nominated before 2027
$1,641,577 Vol.
<1%

Marc Sumerlin
$2,288,945 Vol.
<1%
0123456789
%

Jerome Powell
$2,676,043 Vol.
<1%

Bill Pulte
$11,876,338 Vol.
<1%

Howard Lutnick
$1,245,830 Vol.
<1%

Arthur Laffer
$7,800,319 Vol.
<1%

Larry Kudlow
$9,758,133 Vol.
<1%
0123456789
%

Ron Paul
$4,125,419 Vol.
<1%

James Bullard
$1,682,539 Vol.
<1%

David Zervos
$1,905,930 Vol.
<1%
0123456789
%

Lorie K. Logan
$1,866,074 Vol.
<1%

Philip Jefferson
$4,515,158 Vol.
<1%

Janet Yellen
$19,390,427 Vol.
<1%

Larry Lindsey
$4,980,059 Vol.
<1%

Barron Trump
$12,155,421 Vol.
<1%

Donald Trump
$18,558,785 Vol.
<1%

Market Context