Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?

Name: Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?
Start: 2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z
End: 2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z

Kevin Warsh 98.0%

Judy Shelton 1.1%

Kevin Hassett <1%

Christopher Waller <1%

$384,570,578 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026

Kevin Warsh
$28,132,343 Vol.
98%

Judy Shelton
$46,286,749 Vol.
1%

Kevin Hassett
$21,931,737 Vol.
<1%

Christopher Waller
$16,333,818 Vol.
<1%

Rick Rieder
$18,356,830 Vol.
<1%

Jerome Powell
$22,092,306 Vol.
<1%

Michelle Bowman
$15,137,420 Vol.
<1%

Bill Pulte
$23,559,715 Vol.
<1%

David Malpass
$5,958,533 Vol.
<1%

Howard Lutnick
$2,418,975 Vol.
<1%

Arthur Laffer
$20,972,373 Vol.
<1%

Larry Kudlow
$10,118,186 Vol.
<1%

Ron Paul
$12,380,627 Vol.
<1%

Stephen Miran
$8,893,420 Vol.
<1%

Scott Bessent
$14,703,976 Vol.
<1%

James Bullard
$2,453,589 Vol.
<1%

Marc Sumerlin
$4,146,874 Vol.
<1%

David Zervos
$17,767,281 Vol.
<1%

Lorie K. Logan
$2,564,381 Vol.
<1%

Philip Jefferson
$10,601,250 Vol.
<1%

Janet Yellen
$21,088,923 Vol.
<1%

Larry Lindsey
$5,893,253 Vol.
<1%

Barron Trump
$20,730,663 Vol.
<1%

Donald Trump
$23,294,798 Vol.
<1%

No one nominated before 2027
$8,747,552 Vol.
<1%

Rules

This market will resolve according to the next individual Donald Trump, as President of the United States, formally nominates to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate. Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Outcome proposed: Yes

Disputed

Outcome proposed: Yes

Disputed

Final review

Beware of external links.

Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?

Kevin Warsh 98.0%

Judy Shelton 1.1%

Kevin Hassett <1%

Christopher Waller <1%

$384,570,578 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026

Kevin Warsh

$28,132,343 Vol.

98%

Judy Shelton

$46,286,749 Vol.

Kevin Hassett

$21,931,737 Vol.

<1%

Christopher Waller

$16,333,818 Vol.

<1%

Rick Rieder

$18,356,830 Vol.

<1%

Jerome Powell

$22,092,306 Vol.

<1%

Michelle Bowman

$15,137,420 Vol.

<1%

Bill Pulte

$23,559,715 Vol.

<1%

David Malpass

$5,958,533 Vol.

<1%

Howard Lutnick

$2,418,975 Vol.

<1%

Arthur Laffer

$20,972,373 Vol.

<1%

Larry Kudlow

$10,118,186 Vol.

<1%

Ron Paul

$12,380,627 Vol.

<1%

Stephen Miran

$8,893,420 Vol.

<1%

Scott Bessent

$14,703,976 Vol.

<1%

James Bullard

$2,453,589 Vol.

<1%

Marc Sumerlin

$4,146,874 Vol.

<1%

David Zervos

$17,767,281 Vol.

<1%

Lorie K. Logan

$2,564,381 Vol.

<1%

Philip Jefferson

$10,601,250 Vol.

<1%

Janet Yellen

$21,088,923 Vol.

<1%

Larry Lindsey

$5,893,253 Vol.

<1%

Barron Trump

$20,730,663 Vol.

<1%

Donald Trump

$23,294,798 Vol.

<1%

No one nominated before 2027

$8,747,552 Vol.

<1%

About

Volume

$384,570,578

End Date

Dec 31, 2026

Created At

Aug 5, 2025, 1:21 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

Will 60 or more of senators vote “Yea” for Trump’s Fed Chair nominee?

22%

Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 28, 2026?

81%

Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair and will rates stay above 2.5% in 2026?

68%

Beware of external links.