Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?

Name: Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?
Start: 2025-08-05T17:33:33.863763Z
End: 2026-12-31T00:00:00Z

$179,150,193 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026

Kevin Warsh 40%

Kevin Hassett 33%

Christopher Waller 8.8%

Rick Rieder 8.2%

OUTCOME

% CHANCE

Kevin Warsh
$4,855,001 Vol.
40%

Kevin Hassett
$9,115,099 Vol.
33%

Christopher Waller
$3,913,064 Vol.
9%

Rick Rieder
$3,447,525 Vol.
8%

Michelle Bowman
$3,596,692 Vol.
3%

Scott Bessent
$4,220,134 Vol.
2%

Judy Shelton
$4,422,121 Vol.
2%

Stephen Miran
$3,476,456 Vol.
1%

No one nominated before 2027
$2,417,312 Vol.
<1%

Howard Lutnick
$1,767,103 Vol.
<1%

David Malpass
$3,008,388 Vol.
<1%

Jerome Powell
$4,679,628 Vol.
<1%

James Bullard
$1,976,923 Vol.
<1%

Bill Pulte
$21,770,720 Vol.
<1%

Arthur Laffer
$9,970,838 Vol.
<1%

Larry Kudlow
$9,871,202 Vol.
<1%

Ron Paul
$7,503,036 Vol.
<1%

Marc Sumerlin
$2,827,622 Vol.
<1%

David Zervos
$2,559,293 Vol.
<1%

Lorie K. Logan
$1,961,330 Vol.
<1%

Philip Jefferson
$5,140,300 Vol.
<1%

Janet Yellen
$20,573,154 Vol.
<1%

Larry Lindsey
$5,449,588 Vol.
<1%

Barron Trump
$18,213,080 Vol.
<1%

Donald Trump
$22,409,576 Vol.
<1%

Rules

This market will resolve according to the next individual Donald Trump, as President of the United States, formally nominates to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.

Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Created At: Aug 5, 2025, 5:21 PM UTC

Volume

$179,150,193

End Date

Dec 31, 2026

Created At

Aug 5, 2025, 5:21 PM UTC

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

Beware of external links.

$179,150,193 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026

Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?

Kevin Warsh 40%

Kevin Hassett 33%

Christopher Waller 8.8%

Rick Rieder 8.2%

OUTCOME

% CHANCE

Kevin Warsh

$4,855,001 Vol.

40%

Kevin Hassett

$9,115,099 Vol.

33%

Christopher Waller

$3,913,064 Vol.

Rick Rieder

$3,447,525 Vol.

Michelle Bowman

$3,596,692 Vol.

Scott Bessent

$4,220,134 Vol.

Judy Shelton

$4,422,121 Vol.

Stephen Miran

$3,476,456 Vol.

No one nominated before 2027

$2,417,312 Vol.

<1%

Howard Lutnick

$1,767,103 Vol.

<1%

David Malpass

$3,008,388 Vol.

<1%

Jerome Powell

$4,679,628 Vol.

<1%

James Bullard

$1,976,923 Vol.

<1%

Bill Pulte

$21,770,720 Vol.

<1%

Arthur Laffer

$9,970,838 Vol.

<1%

Larry Kudlow

$9,871,202 Vol.

<1%

Ron Paul

$7,503,036 Vol.

<1%

Marc Sumerlin

$2,827,622 Vol.

<1%

David Zervos

$2,559,293 Vol.

<1%

Lorie K. Logan

$1,961,330 Vol.

<1%

Philip Jefferson

$5,140,300 Vol.

<1%

Janet Yellen

$20,573,154 Vol.

<1%

Larry Lindsey

$5,449,588 Vol.

<1%

Barron Trump

$18,213,080 Vol.

<1%

Donald Trump

$22,409,576 Vol.

<1%

About

Volume

$179,150,193

End Date

Dec 31, 2026

Created At

Aug 5, 2025, 5:21 PM UTC

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

Will Donald Trump not announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve before February 2026?

42%

Will 60 or more of senators vote “Yea” for Trump’s Fed Chair nominee?

34%

Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by June 30, 2026?

99%

Beware of external links.

Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?

Kevin Warsh
$4,855,001 Vol.
40%

Kevin Hassett
$9,115,099 Vol.
33%

Christopher Waller
$3,913,064 Vol.
9%

Rick Rieder
$3,447,525 Vol.
8%

Michelle Bowman
$3,596,692 Vol.
3%

Scott Bessent
$4,220,134 Vol.
2%

Judy Shelton
$4,422,121 Vol.
2%

Stephen Miran
$3,476,456 Vol.
1%

No one nominated before 2027
$2,417,312 Vol.
<1%

Howard Lutnick
$1,767,103 Vol.
<1%

David Malpass
$3,008,388 Vol.
<1%

Jerome Powell
$4,679,628 Vol.
<1%

James Bullard
$1,976,923 Vol.
<1%

Bill Pulte
$21,770,720 Vol.
<1%

Arthur Laffer
$9,970,838 Vol.
<1%

Larry Kudlow
$9,871,202 Vol.
<1%

Ron Paul
$7,503,036 Vol.
<1%

Marc Sumerlin
$2,827,622 Vol.
<1%

David Zervos
$2,559,293 Vol.
<1%

Lorie K. Logan
$1,961,330 Vol.
<1%

Philip Jefferson
$5,140,300 Vol.
<1%

Janet Yellen
$20,573,154 Vol.
<1%

Larry Lindsey
$5,449,588 Vol.
<1%

Barron Trump
$18,213,080 Vol.
<1%

Donald Trump
$22,409,576 Vol.
<1%

Market Context