Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?

Name: Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?
Start: 2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z
End: 2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z

Kevin Warsh 95.1%

Judy Shelton 2.9%

Rick Rieder <1%

Kevin Hassett <1%

$421,293,270 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026

Kevin Warsh
$32,987,831 Vol.
95%

Judy Shelton
$59,301,498 Vol.
3%

Rick Rieder
$20,194,460 Vol.
1%

Kevin Hassett
$23,804,622 Vol.
<1%

Christopher Waller
$17,839,389 Vol.
<1%

Michelle Bowman
$16,291,227 Vol.
<1%

No one nominated before 2027
$12,159,482 Vol.
<1%

Jerome Powell
$24,485,909 Vol.
<1%

Stephen Miran
$13,513,808 Vol.
<1%

Bill Pulte
$24,016,771 Vol.
<1%

David Malpass
$6,158,522 Vol.
<1%

Howard Lutnick
$2,516,825 Vol.
<1%

Arthur Laffer
$21,033,223 Vol.
<1%

Larry Kudlow
$10,190,036 Vol.
<1%

Ron Paul
$12,435,067 Vol.
<1%

Scott Bessent
$15,117,480 Vol.
<1%

James Bullard
$2,637,439 Vol.
<1%

Marc Sumerlin
$4,212,874 Vol.
<1%

David Zervos
$17,791,409 Vol.
<1%

Lorie K. Logan
$2,706,697 Vol.
<1%

Philip Jefferson
$10,716,160 Vol.
<1%

Janet Yellen
$21,146,343 Vol.
<1%

Larry Lindsey
$5,931,693 Vol.
<1%

Barron Trump
$20,765,683 Vol.
<1%

Donald Trump
$23,333,818 Vol.
<1%

This market will resolve according to the next individual Donald Trump, as President of the United States, formally nominates to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate. Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Outcome proposed: Yes

Disputed

Outcome proposal

Final dispute

Final

Beware of external links.

Politics·Jerome Powell

Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?

Kevin Warsh 95.1%

Judy Shelton 2.9%

Rick Rieder <1%

Kevin Hassett <1%

$421,293,270 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026

Kevin Warsh

$32,987,831 Vol.

95%

Judy Shelton

$59,301,498 Vol.

Rick Rieder

$20,194,460 Vol.

Kevin Hassett

$23,804,622 Vol.

<1%

Christopher Waller

$17,839,389 Vol.

<1%

Michelle Bowman

$16,291,227 Vol.

<1%

No one nominated before 2027

$12,159,482 Vol.

<1%

Jerome Powell

$24,485,909 Vol.

<1%

Stephen Miran

$13,513,808 Vol.

<1%

Bill Pulte

$24,016,771 Vol.

<1%

David Malpass

$6,158,522 Vol.

<1%

Howard Lutnick

$2,516,825 Vol.

<1%

Arthur Laffer

$21,033,223 Vol.

<1%

Larry Kudlow

$10,190,036 Vol.

<1%

Ron Paul

$12,435,067 Vol.

<1%

Scott Bessent

$15,117,480 Vol.

<1%

James Bullard

$2,637,439 Vol.

<1%

Marc Sumerlin

$4,212,874 Vol.

<1%

David Zervos

$17,791,409 Vol.

<1%

Lorie K. Logan

$2,706,697 Vol.

<1%

Philip Jefferson

$10,716,160 Vol.

<1%

Janet Yellen

$21,146,343 Vol.

<1%

Larry Lindsey

$5,931,693 Vol.

<1%

Barron Trump

$20,765,683 Vol.

<1%

Donald Trump

$23,333,818 Vol.

<1%

Will 60 or more of senators vote “Yea” for Trump’s Fed Chair nominee?

27%

Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 28, 2026?

66%

Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair and will rates stay above 2.5% in 2026?

67%

Beware of external links.

Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?

Kevin Warsh$32,987,831 Vol.95%Buy Yes95.2¢Buy No5.0¢

Judy Shelton$59,301,498 Vol.3%Buy Yes3.0¢Buy No97.1¢

Rick Rieder$20,194,460 Vol.1%Buy Yes0.6¢Buy No99.5¢

Kevin Hassett$23,804,622 Vol.<1%Buy Yes0.4¢Buy No99.7¢

Christopher Waller$17,839,389 Vol.<1%Buy Yes0.3¢Buy No99.8¢

Michelle Bowman$16,291,227 Vol.<1%Buy Yes0.3¢Buy No99.8¢

No one nominated before 2027$12,159,482 Vol.<1%Buy Yes0.3¢Buy No99.8¢

Jerome Powell$24,485,909 Vol.<1%Buy Yes0.2¢Buy No99.9¢

Stephen Miran$13,513,808 Vol.<1%Buy Yes0.2¢Buy No99.9¢

Bill Pulte$24,016,771 Vol.<1%Buy Yes0.1¢Buy No0.0¢

David Malpass$6,158,522 Vol.<1%Buy Yes0.1¢Buy No0.0¢

Howard Lutnick$2,516,825 Vol.<1%Buy Yes0.1¢Buy No0.0¢

Arthur Laffer$21,033,223 Vol.<1%Buy Yes0.1¢Buy No0.0¢

Larry Kudlow$10,190,036 Vol.<1%Buy Yes0.1¢Buy No0.0¢

Ron Paul$12,435,067 Vol.<1%Buy Yes0.1¢Buy No0.0¢

Scott Bessent$15,117,480 Vol.<1%Buy Yes0.1¢Buy No0.0¢

James Bullard$2,637,439 Vol.<1%Buy Yes0.1¢Buy No0.0¢

Marc Sumerlin$4,212,874 Vol.<1%Buy Yes0.1¢Buy No0.0¢

David Zervos$17,791,409 Vol.<1%Buy Yes0.1¢Buy No0.0¢

Lorie K. Logan$2,706,697 Vol.<1%Buy Yes0.1¢Buy No0.0¢

Philip Jefferson$10,716,160 Vol.<1%Buy Yes0.1¢Buy No0.0¢

Janet Yellen$21,146,343 Vol.<1%Buy Yes0.1¢Buy No0.0¢

Larry Lindsey$5,931,693 Vol.<1%Buy Yes0.1¢Buy No0.0¢

Barron Trump$20,765,683 Vol.<1%Buy Yes0.1¢Buy No0.0¢

Donald Trump$23,333,818 Vol.<1%Buy Yes0.1¢Buy No0.0¢

Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?

Related

Kevin Warsh
$32,987,831 Vol.
95%

Judy Shelton
$59,301,498 Vol.
3%

Rick Rieder
$20,194,460 Vol.
1%

Kevin Hassett
$23,804,622 Vol.
<1%

Christopher Waller
$17,839,389 Vol.
<1%

Michelle Bowman
$16,291,227 Vol.
<1%

No one nominated before 2027
$12,159,482 Vol.
<1%

Jerome Powell
$24,485,909 Vol.
<1%

Stephen Miran
$13,513,808 Vol.
<1%

Bill Pulte
$24,016,771 Vol.
<1%

David Malpass
$6,158,522 Vol.
<1%

Howard Lutnick
$2,516,825 Vol.
<1%

Arthur Laffer
$21,033,223 Vol.
<1%

Larry Kudlow
$10,190,036 Vol.
<1%

Ron Paul
$12,435,067 Vol.
<1%

Scott Bessent
$15,117,480 Vol.
<1%

James Bullard
$2,637,439 Vol.
<1%

Marc Sumerlin
$4,212,874 Vol.
<1%

David Zervos
$17,791,409 Vol.
<1%

Lorie K. Logan
$2,706,697 Vol.
<1%

Philip Jefferson
$10,716,160 Vol.
<1%

Janet Yellen
$21,146,343 Vol.
<1%

Larry Lindsey
$5,931,693 Vol.
<1%

Barron Trump
$20,765,683 Vol.
<1%

Donald Trump
$23,333,818 Vol.
<1%