Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?

Name: Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?
Start: 2025-08-05T17:33:33.863763Z
End: 2026-12-31T00:00:00Z

$186,969,336 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026

Kevin Warsh 43%

Kevin Hassett 34%

Rick Rieder 10.4%

Christopher Waller 8.1%

OUTCOME

% CHANCE

Kevin Warsh
$5,123,454 Vol.
43%

Kevin Hassett
$9,338,417 Vol.
34%

Rick Rieder
$3,861,494 Vol.
10%

Christopher Waller
$4,111,228 Vol.
8%

Scott Bessent
$4,453,146 Vol.
2%

Stephen Miran
$3,734,632 Vol.
2%

Michelle Bowman
$3,757,093 Vol.
1%

Judy Shelton
$4,665,121 Vol.
1%

No one nominated before 2027
$2,557,101 Vol.
<1%

David Malpass
$3,159,521 Vol.
<1%

Jerome Powell
$5,316,942 Vol.
<1%

Bill Pulte
$21,784,820 Vol.
<1%

Howard Lutnick
$1,847,883 Vol.
<1%

Arthur Laffer
$10,033,136 Vol.
<1%

Larry Kudlow
$9,908,202 Vol.
<1%

Ron Paul
$11,067,278 Vol.
<1%

James Bullard
$2,005,671 Vol.
<1%

Marc Sumerlin
$3,033,100 Vol.
<1%

David Zervos
$2,858,855 Vol.
<1%

Lorie K. Logan
$1,972,330 Vol.
<1%

Philip Jefferson
$5,151,300 Vol.
<1%

Janet Yellen
$20,574,254 Vol.
<1%

Larry Lindsey
$5,588,791 Vol.
<1%

Barron Trump
$18,599,885 Vol.
<1%

Donald Trump
$22,460,676 Vol.
<1%

Rules

This market will resolve according to the next individual Donald Trump, as President of the United States, formally nominates to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.

Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Created At: Aug 5, 2025, 1:21 PM ET

Volume

$186,969,336

End Date

Dec 31, 2026

Created At

Aug 5, 2025, 1:21 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

Beware of external links.

$186,969,336 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026

Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?

Kevin Warsh 43%

Kevin Hassett 34%

Rick Rieder 10.4%

Christopher Waller 8.1%

OUTCOME

% CHANCE

Kevin Warsh

$5,123,454 Vol.

43%

Kevin Hassett

$9,338,417 Vol.

34%

Rick Rieder

$3,861,494 Vol.

10%

Christopher Waller

$4,111,228 Vol.

Scott Bessent

$4,453,146 Vol.

Stephen Miran

$3,734,632 Vol.

Michelle Bowman

$3,757,093 Vol.

Judy Shelton

$4,665,121 Vol.

No one nominated before 2027

$2,557,101 Vol.

<1%

David Malpass

$3,159,521 Vol.

<1%

Jerome Powell

$5,316,942 Vol.

<1%

Bill Pulte

$21,784,820 Vol.

<1%

Howard Lutnick

$1,847,883 Vol.

<1%

Arthur Laffer

$10,033,136 Vol.

<1%

Larry Kudlow

$9,908,202 Vol.

<1%

Ron Paul

$11,067,278 Vol.

<1%

James Bullard

$2,005,671 Vol.

<1%

Marc Sumerlin

$3,033,100 Vol.

<1%

David Zervos

$2,858,855 Vol.

<1%

Lorie K. Logan

$1,972,330 Vol.

<1%

Philip Jefferson

$5,151,300 Vol.

<1%

Janet Yellen

$20,574,254 Vol.

<1%

Larry Lindsey

$5,588,791 Vol.

<1%

Barron Trump

$18,599,885 Vol.

<1%

Donald Trump

$22,460,676 Vol.

<1%

About

Volume

$186,969,336

End Date

Dec 31, 2026

Created At

Aug 5, 2025, 1:21 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

Will Donald Trump not announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve before February 2026?

44%

Will 57 senators vote “Yea” for Trump’s Fed Chair nominee?

29%

Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by June 30, 2026?

99%

Beware of external links.

Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?

Kevin Warsh
$5,123,454 Vol.
43%

Kevin Hassett
$9,338,417 Vol.
34%

Rick Rieder
$3,861,494 Vol.
10%

Christopher Waller
$4,111,228 Vol.
8%

Scott Bessent
$4,453,146 Vol.
2%

Stephen Miran
$3,734,632 Vol.
2%

Michelle Bowman
$3,757,093 Vol.
1%

Judy Shelton
$4,665,121 Vol.
1%

No one nominated before 2027
$2,557,101 Vol.
<1%

David Malpass
$3,159,521 Vol.
<1%

Jerome Powell
$5,316,942 Vol.
<1%

Bill Pulte
$21,784,820 Vol.
<1%

Howard Lutnick
$1,847,883 Vol.
<1%

Arthur Laffer
$10,033,136 Vol.
<1%

Larry Kudlow
$9,908,202 Vol.
<1%

Ron Paul
$11,067,278 Vol.
<1%

James Bullard
$2,005,671 Vol.
<1%

Marc Sumerlin
$3,033,100 Vol.
<1%

David Zervos
$2,858,855 Vol.
<1%

Lorie K. Logan
$1,972,330 Vol.
<1%

Philip Jefferson
$5,151,300 Vol.
<1%

Janet Yellen
$20,574,254 Vol.
<1%

Larry Lindsey
$5,588,791 Vol.
<1%

Barron Trump
$18,599,885 Vol.
<1%

Donald Trump
$22,460,676 Vol.
<1%

Market Context