Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?

Name: Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?
Start: 2025-08-05T17:33:33.863763Z
End: 2026-12-31T00:00:00Z

$185,609,830 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026

Kevin Warsh 43%

Kevin Hassett 34%

Christopher Waller 9.2%

Rick Rieder 7.1%

OUTCOME

% CHANCE

Kevin Warsh
$5,068,870 Vol.
43%

Kevin Hassett
$9,305,946 Vol.
34%

Christopher Waller
$4,018,652 Vol.
9%

Rick Rieder
$3,731,628 Vol.
7%

Scott Bessent
$4,348,597 Vol.
2%

Stephen Miran
$3,702,386 Vol.
2%

Judy Shelton
$4,583,281 Vol.
2%

Michelle Bowman
$3,723,940 Vol.
2%

No one nominated before 2027
$2,532,286 Vol.
<1%

David Malpass
$3,139,860 Vol.
<1%

Howard Lutnick
$1,845,335 Vol.
<1%

James Bullard
$2,004,665 Vol.
<1%

Jerome Powell
$4,914,892 Vol.
<1%

David Zervos
$2,736,959 Vol.
<1%

Bill Pulte
$21,783,820 Vol.
<1%

Arthur Laffer
$10,033,136 Vol.
<1%

Larry Kudlow
$9,907,202 Vol.
<1%

Ron Paul
$11,033,896 Vol.
<1%

Marc Sumerlin
$2,939,135 Vol.
<1%

Lorie K. Logan
$1,972,330 Vol.
<1%

Philip Jefferson
$5,151,300 Vol.
<1%

Janet Yellen
$20,574,254 Vol.
<1%

Larry Lindsey
$5,516,891 Vol.
<1%

Barron Trump
$18,584,885 Vol.
<1%

Donald Trump
$22,450,676 Vol.
<1%

Rules

This market will resolve according to the next individual Donald Trump, as President of the United States, formally nominates to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.

Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Created At: Aug 5, 2025, 5:21 PM UTC

Volume

$185,609,830

End Date

Dec 31, 2026

Created At

Aug 5, 2025, 5:21 PM UTC

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

Beware of external links.

$185,609,830 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026

Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?

Kevin Warsh 43%

Kevin Hassett 34%

Christopher Waller 9.2%

Rick Rieder 7.1%

OUTCOME

% CHANCE

Kevin Warsh

$5,068,870 Vol.

43%

Kevin Hassett

$9,305,946 Vol.

34%

Christopher Waller

$4,018,652 Vol.

Rick Rieder

$3,731,628 Vol.

Scott Bessent

$4,348,597 Vol.

Stephen Miran

$3,702,386 Vol.

Judy Shelton

$4,583,281 Vol.

Michelle Bowman

$3,723,940 Vol.

No one nominated before 2027

$2,532,286 Vol.

<1%

David Malpass

$3,139,860 Vol.

<1%

Howard Lutnick

$1,845,335 Vol.

<1%

James Bullard

$2,004,665 Vol.

<1%

Jerome Powell

$4,914,892 Vol.

<1%

David Zervos

$2,736,959 Vol.

<1%

Bill Pulte

$21,783,820 Vol.

<1%

Arthur Laffer

$10,033,136 Vol.

<1%

Larry Kudlow

$9,907,202 Vol.

<1%

Ron Paul

$11,033,896 Vol.

<1%

Marc Sumerlin

$2,939,135 Vol.

<1%

Lorie K. Logan

$1,972,330 Vol.

<1%

Philip Jefferson

$5,151,300 Vol.

<1%

Janet Yellen

$20,574,254 Vol.

<1%

Larry Lindsey

$5,516,891 Vol.

<1%

Barron Trump

$18,584,885 Vol.

<1%

Donald Trump

$22,450,676 Vol.

<1%

About

Volume

$185,609,830

End Date

Dec 31, 2026

Created At

Aug 5, 2025, 5:21 PM UTC

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

Will Donald Trump not announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve before February 2026?

47%

Will 54 senators vote “Yea” for Trump’s Fed Chair nominee?

27%

Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by June 30, 2026?

99%

Beware of external links.

Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?

Kevin Warsh
$5,068,870 Vol.
43%

Kevin Hassett
$9,305,946 Vol.
34%

Christopher Waller
$4,018,652 Vol.
9%

Rick Rieder
$3,731,628 Vol.
7%

Scott Bessent
$4,348,597 Vol.
2%

Stephen Miran
$3,702,386 Vol.
2%

Judy Shelton
$4,583,281 Vol.
2%

Michelle Bowman
$3,723,940 Vol.
2%

No one nominated before 2027
$2,532,286 Vol.
<1%

David Malpass
$3,139,860 Vol.
<1%

Howard Lutnick
$1,845,335 Vol.
<1%

James Bullard
$2,004,665 Vol.
<1%

Jerome Powell
$4,914,892 Vol.
<1%

David Zervos
$2,736,959 Vol.
<1%

Bill Pulte
$21,783,820 Vol.
<1%

Arthur Laffer
$10,033,136 Vol.
<1%

Larry Kudlow
$9,907,202 Vol.
<1%

Ron Paul
$11,033,896 Vol.
<1%

Marc Sumerlin
$2,939,135 Vol.
<1%

Lorie K. Logan
$1,972,330 Vol.
<1%

Philip Jefferson
$5,151,300 Vol.
<1%

Janet Yellen
$20,574,254 Vol.
<1%

Larry Lindsey
$5,516,891 Vol.
<1%

Barron Trump
$18,584,885 Vol.
<1%

Donald Trump
$22,450,676 Vol.
<1%

Market Context