Recent ousters of Attorney General Pam Bondi on April 2 and Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem in early March mark the Trump administration's first cabinet departures after a stable 2025 with zero turnover at that level, contrasting high churn in his first term. A new Atlantic report details White House discussions on potential exits for FBI Director Kash Patel, Army Secretary Daniel Driscoll, and Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer amid frustrations over policy execution like DOJ probes and military leadership. Traders monitor loyalty tests, performance pressures, and midterm dynamics, with further shakeups possible in coming weeks per anonymous sources.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated$829,225 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Tulsi Gabbard
65%
Kash Patel
57%
Kristi Noem
54%
Howard Lutnick
52%
Pete Hegseth
47%
John Ratcliffe
40%
Karoline Leavitt
37%
Lee Zeldin
36%
Susie Wiles
33%
David Sacks
31%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
26%
Stephen Miller
18%
Scott Bessent
18%
Marco Rubio
15%
Russell Vought
27%
Tom Homan
27%
Dan Scavino
33%
$829,225 Vol.
Tulsi Gabbard
$15,032 Vol.
65%
Kash Patel
$157,004 Vol.
57%
Kristi Noem
$85,152 Vol.
54%
Howard Lutnick
$35,454 Vol.
52%
Pete Hegseth
$17,705 Vol.
47%
John Ratcliffe
$0 Vol.
40%
Karoline Leavitt
$11,657 Vol.
37%
Lee Zeldin
$23,743 Vol.
36%
Susie Wiles
$39,673 Vol.
33%
David Sacks
$6,314 Vol.
31%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
$63,137 Vol.
26%
Stephen Miller
$551 Vol.
18%
Scott Bessent
$411 Vol.
18%
Marco Rubio
$2,728 Vol.
15%
Russell Vought
$134 Vol.
27%
Tom Homan
$40 Vol.
27%
Dan Scavino
$31 Vol.
33%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Recent ousters of Attorney General Pam Bondi on April 2 and Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem in early March mark the Trump administration's first cabinet departures after a stable 2025 with zero turnover at that level, contrasting high churn in his first term. A new Atlantic report details White House discussions on potential exits for FBI Director Kash Patel, Army Secretary Daniel Driscoll, and Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer amid frustrations over policy execution like DOJ probes and military leadership. Traders monitor loyalty tests, performance pressures, and midterm dynamics, with further shakeups possible in coming weeks per anonymous sources.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 12:34 PM ET
Volume
$829,225End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 12:34 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Recent ousters of Attorney General Pam Bondi on April 2 and Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem in early March mark the Trump administration's first cabinet departures after a stable 2025 with zero turnover at that level, contrasting high churn in his first term. A new Atlantic report details White House discussions on potential exits for FBI Director Kash Patel, Army Secretary Daniel Driscoll, and Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer amid frustrations over policy execution like DOJ probes and military leadership. Traders monitor loyalty tests, performance pressures, and midterm dynamics, with further shakeups possible in coming weeks per anonymous sources.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Volume
$829,225End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 12:34 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent ousters of Attorney General Pam Bondi on April 2 and Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem in early March mark the Trump administration's first cabinet departures after a stable 2025 with zero turnover at that level, contrasting high churn in his first term. A new Atlantic report details White House discussions on potential exits for FBI Director Kash Patel, Army Secretary Daniel Driscoll, and Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer amid frustrations over policy execution like DOJ probes and military leadership. Traders monitor loyalty tests, performance pressures, and midterm dynamics, with further shakeups possible in coming weeks per anonymous sources.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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