Which countries will the U.S. agree to tariff agreements with by December 31?
$23,648 Vol.
Dec 31, 2025
Mexico
$1,502 Vol.
No
Mexico
$1,502 Vol.
No
Canada
$3,831 Vol.
No
Canada
$3,831 Vol.
No
Australia
$2,892 Vol.
No
Australia
$2,892 Vol.
No
China
$5,420 Vol.
No
China
$5,420 Vol.
No
India
$6,323 Vol.
No
India
$6,323 Vol.
No
Israel
$3,680 Vol.
Yes
Israel
$3,680 Vol.
Yes
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and the listed country/entity by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements to extend tariff exemptions will qualify if announced as an individualized extension. However, tariff exemptions which are announced as part of a class of exemptions and do not reflect individual deals - such as Trump’s April 9 pause on all reciprocal tariffs other than those on China - will not qualify (see: https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/04/modifying-reciprocal-tariff-rates-to-reflect-trading-partner-retaliation-and-alignment/).
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
Agreements that include the United States and the listed country/entity as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached.This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and the listed country/entity by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements to extend tariff exemptions will qualify if announced as an individualized extension. However, tariff exemptions which are announced as part of a class of exemptions and do not reflect individual deals - such as Trump’s April 9 pause on all reciprocal tariffs other than those on China - will not qualify (see: https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/04/modifying-reciprocal-tariff-rates-to-reflect-trading-partner-retaliation-and-alignment/).
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
Agreements that include the United States and the listed country/entity as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements to extend tariff exemptions will qualify if announced as an individualized extension. However, tariff exemptions which are announced as part of a class of exemptions and do not reflect individual deals - such as Trump’s April 9 pause on all reciprocal tariffs other than those on China - will not qualify (see: https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/04/modifying-reciprocal-tariff-rates-to-reflect-trading-partner-retaliation-and-alignment/).
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
Agreements that include the United States and the listed country/entity as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached.
Created At: Nov 26, 2025, 12:23 PM ET
Volume
$23,648End Date
Dec 31, 2025Created At
Nov 26, 2025, 12:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Which countries will the U.S. agree to tariff agreements with by December 31?
$23,648 Vol.
Mexico
$1,502 Vol.
No
Canada
$3,831 Vol.
No
Australia
$2,892 Vol.
No
China
$5,420 Vol.
No
India
$6,323 Vol.
No
Israel
$3,680 Vol.
Yes
About
Volume
$23,648End Date
Dec 31, 2025Created At
Nov 26, 2025, 12:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.