Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Anthropic a 64.5% implied probability of fielding the top large language model by June's end, as judged by the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard, driven by its aggressive 2026 release cadence—including yesterday's Claude Mythos 5 rollout with 10 trillion parameters excelling in cybersecurity and professional benchmarks like coding and reasoning. Google trails at 24.5% on Gemini 3.1 Pro's strong reasoning gains and rapid iteration, closing gaps seen in March rankings where Anthropic and OpenAI were neck-and-neck. OpenAI's 7.5% reflects GPT-5.4's high intelligence scores but recent benchmark slips versus rivals. Lower odds for xAI, DeepSeek, and others stem from niche strengths without broad leaderboard dominance. Watch for mid-May developer previews and I/O announcements as key catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedAnthropic 64.5%
Google 25%
OpenAI 8%
DeepSeek 1.6%
$2,970,097 Vol.
$2,970,097 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Anthropic
64%
25%
OpenAI
8%
DeepSeek
2%
xAI
2%
Alibaba
1%
Z.ai
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Anthropic 64.5%
Google 25%
OpenAI 8%
DeepSeek 1.6%
$2,970,097 Vol.
$2,970,097 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Anthropic
$575,385 Vol.
64%
$319,160 Vol.
25%
OpenAI
$107,194 Vol.
8%
DeepSeek
$234,144 Vol.
2%
xAI
$855,848 Vol.
2%
Alibaba
$116,595 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$174,728 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$128,404 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$296,283 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$162,357 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Anthropic a 64.5% implied probability of fielding the top large language model by June's end, as judged by the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard, driven by its aggressive 2026 release cadence—including yesterday's Claude Mythos 5 rollout with 10 trillion parameters excelling in cybersecurity and professional benchmarks like coding and reasoning. Google trails at 24.5% on Gemini 3.1 Pro's strong reasoning gains and rapid iteration, closing gaps seen in March rankings where Anthropic and OpenAI were neck-and-neck. OpenAI's 7.5% reflects GPT-5.4's high intelligence scores but recent benchmark slips versus rivals. Lower odds for xAI, DeepSeek, and others stem from niche strengths without broad leaderboard dominance. Watch for mid-May developer previews and I/O announcements as key catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Market Opened: Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
Volume
$2,970,097End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Anthropic a 64.5% implied probability of fielding the top large language model by June's end, as judged by the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard, driven by its aggressive 2026 release cadence—including yesterday's Claude Mythos 5 rollout with 10 trillion parameters excelling in cybersecurity and professional benchmarks like coding and reasoning. Google trails at 24.5% on Gemini 3.1 Pro's strong reasoning gains and rapid iteration, closing gaps seen in March rankings where Anthropic and OpenAI were neck-and-neck. OpenAI's 7.5% reflects GPT-5.4's high intelligence scores but recent benchmark slips versus rivals. Lower odds for xAI, DeepSeek, and others stem from niche strengths without broad leaderboard dominance. Watch for mid-May developer previews and I/O announcements as key catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$2,970,097End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Anthropic a 64.5% implied probability of fielding the top large language model by June's end, as judged by the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard, driven by its aggressive 2026 release cadence—including yesterday's Claude Mythos 5 rollout with 10 trillion parameters excelling in cybersecurity and professional benchmarks like coding and reasoning. Google trails at 24.5% on Gemini 3.1 Pro's strong reasoning gains and rapid iteration, closing gaps seen in March rankings where Anthropic and OpenAI were neck-and-neck. OpenAI's 7.5% reflects GPT-5.4's high intelligence scores but recent benchmark slips versus rivals. Lower odds for xAI, DeepSeek, and others stem from niche strengths without broad leaderboard dominance. Watch for mid-May developer previews and I/O announcements as key catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions