When will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla?
$398,139 Vol.
No raid 100.0%
before Sept 16 <1%
Sept 16–18 <1%
Sept 19-21 <1%
OUTCOMERESULT
before Sept 16
$11,463 Vol.
No
before Sept 16
$11,463 Vol.
No
Sept 16–18
$15,962 Vol.
No
Sept 16–18
$15,962 Vol.
No
Sept 19-21
$33,890 Vol.
No
Sept 19-21
$33,890 Vol.
No
Sept 22-24
$64,512 Vol.
No
Sept 22-24
$64,512 Vol.
No
Sept 25-27
$80,406 Vol.
No
Sept 25-27
$80,406 Vol.
No
Sept 28-30
$90,687 Vol.
No
Sept 28-30
$90,687 Vol.
No
No raid
$101,219 Vol.
Yes
No raid
$101,219 Vol.
Yes
Rules
The Global Sumud Flotilla, including its partner initiatives, announced that it will launch a Flotilla towards Gaza from Spanish ports on August 31 and Tunisian ports on September 4. More information can be found here: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/8/31/gaza-humanitarian-flotilla-departs-barcelona-to-break-israeli-siege
This market will resolve according to the date Israeli military or law enforcement personnel first physically board any vessel participating in the initiative, without authorization or consent from the crew or organizers.
This market will resolve to "No raid" if no qualifying raid is conducted by September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.
Escorting, shadowing, or issuing warnings without boarding does not count. Boarding with the crew’s consent also will not count.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the date Israeli military or law enforcement personnel first physically board any vessel participating in the initiative, without authorization or consent from the crew or organizers.
This market will resolve to "No raid" if no qualifying raid is conducted by September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.
Escorting, shadowing, or issuing warnings without boarding does not count. Boarding with the crew’s consent also will not count.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Created At: Sep 4, 2025, 9:52 PM UTC
Volume
$398,139End Date
Sep 30, 2025Created At
Sep 4, 2025, 9:52 PM UTCResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
$398,139 Vol.
When will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla?
No raid 100.0%
before Sept 16 <1%
Sept 16–18 <1%
Sept 19-21 <1%
before Sept 16
$11,463 Vol.
No
Sept 16–18
$15,962 Vol.
No
Sept 19-21
$33,890 Vol.
No
Sept 22-24
$64,512 Vol.
No
Sept 25-27
$80,406 Vol.
No
Sept 28-30
$90,687 Vol.
No
No raid
$101,219 Vol.
Yes
About
Volume
$398,139End Date
Sep 30, 2025Created At
Sep 4, 2025, 9:52 PM UTCResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.




Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.