Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Note: As with all markets currently displayed on Polymarket, there are no fees on this market.

Market icon

When will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla?

$398,139 Vol.

No raid 100.0%

before Sept 16 <1%

Sept 16–18 <1%

Sept 19-21 <1%

OUTCOMERESULT

Rules

The Global Sumud Flotilla, including its partner initiatives, announced that it will launch a Flotilla towards Gaza from Spanish ports on August 31 and Tunisian ports on September 4. More information can be found here: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/8/31/gaza-humanitarian-flotilla-departs-barcelona-to-break-israeli-siege

This market will resolve according to the date Israeli military or law enforcement personnel first physically board any vessel participating in the initiative, without authorization or consent from the crew or organizers.

This market will resolve to "No raid" if no qualifying raid is conducted by September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

Escorting, shadowing, or issuing warnings without boarding does not count. Boarding with the crew’s consent also will not count.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$398,139
End Date
Sep 30, 2025
Created At
Sep 4, 2025, 9:52 PM UTC

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

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Beware of external links.

Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Note: As with all markets currently displayed on Polymarket, there are no fees on this market.

$398,139 Vol.

Market icon

When will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla?

No raid 100.0%

before Sept 16 <1%

Sept 16–18 <1%

Sept 19-21 <1%

before Sept 16

$11,463 Vol.

No

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Sept 16–18

$15,962 Vol.

No

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Sept 19-21

$33,890 Vol.

No

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Sept 22-24

$64,512 Vol.

No

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Sept 25-27

$80,406 Vol.

No

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Sept 28-30

$90,687 Vol.

No

circle xmark

No raid

$101,219 Vol.

Yes

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About

Volume
$398,139
End Date
Sep 30, 2025
Created At
Sep 4, 2025, 9:52 PM UTC
shield

Beware of external links.