Name: What will Trump say during Arizona rally?
Start: 2024-10-10T23:12:49.854217Z
End: 2024-10-13T12:00:00Z

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This is a market group over what Donald J. Trump will say during his rally in Prescott Valley, Arizona scheduled for October 13, 2024.

Donald Trump has scheduled a rally on October 13 in Prescott Valley, Arizona (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-hold-a-rally-in-prescott-arizona).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "Nayib" or "Bukele" during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "Nayib" or "Bukele is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to the President of El Salvador.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond October 13, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the event.

Nayib Bukele

Donald Trump has scheduled a rally on October 13 in Prescott Valley, Arizona (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-hold-a-rally-in-prescott-arizona).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "border" 35 or more times during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "border" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to a political boundary between nations.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond October 13, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the event.

Border 35+ times

Donald Trump has scheduled a rally on October 13 in Prescott Valley, Arizona (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-hold-a-rally-in-prescott-arizona).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "tax" 30 or more times during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "tax" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to a compulsory financial charge imposed by a government authority.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond October 13, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the event.

Tax 30+ times

Donald Trump has scheduled a rally on October 13 in Prescott Valley, Arizona (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-hold-a-rally-in-prescott-arizona).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "million" 15 or more times during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "million" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to a very large number.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond October 13, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the event.

Million 15+ times

Donald Trump has scheduled a rally on October 13 in Prescott Valley, Arizona (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-hold-a-rally-in-prescott-arizona).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "gun" 5 or more times during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "gun" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to a weapon incorporating a metal tube from which bullets, shells, or other missiles are propelled by explosive force.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond October 13, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the event.

Gun 5+ times

Donald Trump has scheduled a rally on October 13 in Prescott Valley, Arizona (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-hold-a-rally-in-prescott-arizona).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "Venezuela" 3 or more times during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "Venezuela" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to the South American country.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond October 13, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the event.

Venezuela 3+ times

Donald Trump has scheduled a rally on October 13 in Prescott Valley, Arizona (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-hold-a-rally-in-prescott-arizona).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "MAGA" or "make America great again" 4 or more times during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "MAGA" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to making America great again (e.g. "MAGA-themed" counts).

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond October 13, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the event.

MAGA 4+ times

Donald Trump has scheduled a rally on October 13 in Prescott Valley, Arizona (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-hold-a-rally-in-prescott-arizona).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "Barack Hussein Obama" during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond October 13, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the event.

Barack Hussein Obama

Donald Trump has scheduled a rally on October 13 in Prescott Valley, Arizona (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-hold-a-rally-in-prescott-arizona).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "hispanic" during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "hispanic" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to relating to Spain or to Spanish-speaking countries, especially those of Latin America.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond October 13, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the event.

Hispanic

Donald Trump has scheduled a rally on October 13 in Prescott Valley, Arizona (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-hold-a-rally-in-prescott-arizona).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "insane asylum" during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond October 13, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the event.

Insane Asylum

Donald Trump has scheduled a rally on October 13 in Prescott Valley, Arizona (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-hold-a-rally-in-prescott-arizona).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "every state is a border state" during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond October 13, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the event.

Every State Is A Border State

Donald Trump has scheduled a rally on October 13 in Prescott Valley, Arizona (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-hold-a-rally-in-prescott-arizona).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "Border Kari Lake" during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond October 13, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the event.

Border Kari Lake

Donald Trump has scheduled a rally on October 13 in Prescott Valley, Arizona (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-hold-a-rally-in-prescott-arizona).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "border" 20 or more times during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "border" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to a political boundary between nations.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond October 13, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the event.

Border 20+ times

Donald Trump has scheduled a rally on October 13 in Prescott Valley, Arizona (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-hold-a-rally-in-prescott-arizona).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "Dark MAGA" during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond October 13, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the event.

Dark MAGA

Donald Trump has scheduled a rally on October 13 in Prescott Valley, Arizona (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-hold-a-rally-in-prescott-arizona).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "tampon" during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "tampon" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to the feminine hygiene product.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond October 13, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the event.

Tampon

Donald Trump has scheduled a rally on October 13 in Prescott Valley, Arizona (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-hold-a-rally-in-prescott-arizona).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "Sleepy Joe" or "Crooked Joe" 4 or more times during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond October 13, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the event.

Sleepy/Crooked Joe 4+ times

Donald Trump has scheduled a rally on October 13 in Prescott Valley, Arizona (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-hold-a-rally-in-prescott-arizona).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "trans" during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "trans" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to a person whose gender identity does not correspond with the sex registered for them at birth (e.g. "transgender" counts).

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond October 13, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the event.

Trans

Donald Trump has scheduled a rally on October 13 in Prescott Valley, Arizona (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-hold-a-rally-in-prescott-arizona).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "salt" or "SALT" during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "salt" or "SALT" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to a deduction cap which limits the amount of state and local taxes you can deduct from federal income taxes.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond October 13, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the event.

Salt/SALT

What will Trump say during Arizona rally?

Donald Trump is set to make an appearance at the Rocky Mount Events Center on December 19, 2025 (https://www.wral.com/news/local/president-trump-speak-rocky-mount-friday-december-2025/).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during his appearance at the specified event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Pluralization/possessive of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

This market is explicitly about Donald Trump's scheduled appearance at Rocky Mount on December 19, 2025. Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the named, scheduled event will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the event contains a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market.

If this event is definitively cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by December 19, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution.

Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 20+ times at Rocky Mount events on Friday?

Donald Trump is scheduled to participate in an event titled "The President makes an Announcement" in Washington on December 19, 2025, 1PM ET (see https://rollcall.com/factbase/trump/calendar/).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during his appearance at the specified event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Pluralization/possessive of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

This market is explicitly about the scheduled event titled "The President makes an Announcement" on December 19, 2025, 1PM ET (https://rollcall.com/factbase/trump/topic/calendar/). Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the named, scheduled event will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the event contains a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market.

If this event is definitively cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by December 19, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution.

Will Trump say "Drug" 3+ times during the announcement on December 19?

If U.S. President Donald Trump visits the listed state between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial territory of the listed state. Whether or not Trump enters the state’s airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from the government of the United States of America, official information from Trump, or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g., https://twitter.com/POTUS); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Donald Trump visit Florida in 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Donald Trump announces that he is running for a third term as US President by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Trump must definitively state his intent to run (e.g., "I am running for a third term" or equivalent unambiguous language); vague comments, speculative or contingent remarks or jokes will not suffice. 

Past statements such his March 30 NBC phone interview where he stated "There are methods which you could do it, as you know... A lot of people want me to do it." or his November 13, 2024, where he stated "I suspect I won’t be running again unless you say, ‘He’s so good we’ve got to figure something else out.’" would NOT qualify. 

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by Donald Trump (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Trump announce run for 3rd term?

Donald Trump is scheduled to participate in an event titled "The President signs the National Defense Authorization Act" in Washington on December 18, 2025, 6PM ET (see https://rollcall.com/factbase/trump/calendar/).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during his appearance at the specified event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Pluralization/possessive of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

This market is explicitly about the scheduled event titled "The President signs the National Defense Authorization Act" on December 18, 2025, 6PM ET (https://rollcall.com/factbase/trump/topic/calendar/). Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the named, scheduled event will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the event contains a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market.

If this event is definitively cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by December 18, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution.

Will Trump say "World War 3" at National Defense Authorization Act signing on December 18?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Arizona, scheduled to take place on August 4, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.

If no 2026 Arizona Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Arizona Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Will Andy Biggs win the 2026 Arizona Governor Republican primary election?

Donald Trump is set to make an appearance at the 48th Annual Kennedy Center Honors, which is scheduled to air on December 23, 2025 (https://www.npr.org/2025/12/05/nx-s1-5607173/kennedy-center-honors-trump).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during his appearance at the specified event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Pluralization/possessive of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

This market is explicitly about Donald Trump's scheduled appearance at the Kennedy Center Honors event on December 7, 2025. Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the named, scheduled event will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the event contains a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market.

If this event is definitively cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by December 23, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution.

Will Trump say "Trump" at the Kennedy Center Honors event?

This market will resolve based on whether Donald Trump announces that he will vote for or endorse the listed candidate in the election named in the title.

If Donald Trump does not announce an endorsement by the day before the scheduled election at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Donald Trump's endorsement.

Will Trump endorse Andy Barr for KY-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?

If U.S. President Donald Trump visits China by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g. https://twitter.com/POTUS), however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump visit China by April 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump meets with Benjamin Netanyahu between November 18 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A meeting is defined as any encounter where both the listed individual and Trump are present and interact with each other in person.

An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Trump meet with Netanyahu again before 2026?

AmericaFest is scheduled to take place from December 18 - December 21, 2025, and JD Vance is scheduled to speak on December 21 at 11:07AM ET (https://tpusa.com/agenda/).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if JD Vance says the listed term during the scheduled event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

If prerecorded clips are aired where JD Vance is speaking, those clips will NOT count toward this market's resolution.

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

Any usage of the term, regardless of context, will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market; however, other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

If prerecorded clips are aired where JD Vance is speaking, those clips will NOT count toward this market's resolution.

This market is explicitly about JD Vance's scheduled appearance at the TPUSA AmericaFest event on December 21, 2025. Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the named, scheduled event will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the event contains a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such event is aired by December 21, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". 

The resolution source will be video of the event.

Will JD Vance say "God" 3+ times at AmericaFest events on December 21?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump golfs on over 25% of days between January 20 and December 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve according to https://trumpgolftrack.com as of January 2, 2026, 12:00 PM. However, definitive photo or video evidence confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to supplement the tally if the trumpgolftrack.com tally is incomplete. 

 


Will Trump spend >25% of 2025 presidency golfing?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between November 19, 2025, 12:00 PM ET and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.

Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

Will Trump say "Polymarket" by December 31?

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Will Joseph Chaplik be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs any bill into law that aims to repeal or alter presidential term limits as defined by the 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, or if the U.S. Supreme Court rules in a way that would permit a president to serve more than two terms by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Any law signed meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.

This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration and U.S. Supreme Court decisions.

Will Trump repeal Presidential term limits in 2025?

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Will Mark Lamb be the Republican nominee for AZ-05?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump is interviewed by Tucker Carlson between November 17, 2025 and February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An interview is defined as a scheduled, recorded conversation where Donald Trump answers questions posed by Tucker Carlson. Press conferences or media briefings held by the White House with Carlson in attendance will not count.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a credible consensus of reporting that Donald Trump has recorded an interview with Tucker Carlson before February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, even if that interview is not yet released.

The resolution source for this market will be publicly available video footage of the interview; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Tucker Carlson interview Trump by February 28?

Trump's Treasury Secretary pick Scott Bessent has floated the idea of Trump naming a successor to Jerome Powell to serve as a "shadow chair", prior to the end of Powell's term, scheduled for May 2026. (see: https://www.nbcwashington.com/news/business/money-report/fed-chair-jerome-powell-can-serve-remainder-of-term-says-trumps-treasury-pick-bessent/3788991/).

This market will resolve to according the individual Donald Trump announces as his pick for the next Federal Reserve Chair. If Donald Trump does not announce his pick for the next Federal Reserve Chair by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No announcement by December 31".  

The resolution source for this market will be official information form Donald Trump or one of his official representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump publicly claims that any of the moon landings were faked by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The claim must come directly from Trump via a verified social media account, official public statement, or during a recorded interview, speech, or rally. Indirect remarks, jokes, or quotes taken out of context will not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be statements made by Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used to confirm the legitimacy of such statements.

Trump says Moon Landing faked in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump and Ali Khamenei speak directly to one another between June 26, 7:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any conversation that occurs directly between Donald Trump and Ali Khamenei will qualify, regardless of whether it is over the phone, videocall, or in person. The conversation must be voice-based, not text-based.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the governments of Iran and the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Trump x Khamenei talk in 2025? 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump pardon Roger Ver before 2027?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between December 15, 2025, 12:00 AM ET and December 21, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.

Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" this week? (December 15 - 21)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks Benjamin Netanyahu personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

This includes calling Netanyahu weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, or using other derogatory language. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.

Any public statement made by Trump qualifies.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Trump publicly disparage Netanyahu by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG) buys any amount of $TRUMP (https://solscan.io/token/6p6xgHyF7AeE6TZkSmFsko444wqoP15icUSqi2jfGiPN), either directly or through a subsidiary, between July 21, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be announcements through official information from TMTG, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Trump Media buy $TRUMP in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump’s Truth Social post published on the morning of December 15, 2025, regarding the passing of Rob Reiner (https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/115724141568860081) is deleted at any point between this market’s creation and December 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

A qualifying deletion includes the post being removed for any duration, regardless of whether it is later reposted.

Edits to the post will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be Donald Trump’s official Truth Social account; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Trump remove his Rob Reiner post?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Arizona gubernatorial election.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. 

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. 

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Will the Democrats win the Arizona governor race in 2026?

If U.S. President Donald Trump visits North Korea between August 4 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g. https://twitter.com/POTUS), however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

What will Trump say during Arizona rally?

Border 20+ times
$40,387 Vol.
Yes

Border 35+ times
$88,441 Vol.
Yes

Tax 30+ times
$50,653 Vol.
No

Million 15+ times
$18,933 Vol.
No

Gun 5+ times
$67,478 Vol.
Yes

Sleepy/Crooked Joe 4+ times
$10,383 Vol.
No

MAGA 4+ times
$20,575 Vol.
No

Venezuela 3+ times
$961,361 Vol.
No

Hispanic
$11,736 Vol.
No

Insane Asylum
$23,635 Vol.
Yes

Every State Is A Border State
$16,842 Vol.
No

Nayib Bukele
$4,925 Vol.
No

Border Kari Lake
$18,665 Vol.
No

Barack Hussein Obama
$12,270 Vol.
No

Dark MAGA
$26,126 Vol.
No

Tampon
$6,922 Vol.
No

Trans
$78,720 Vol.
Yes

Salt/SALT
$14,714 Vol.
No

Market Context

What will Trump say during Arizona rally?

Rules

What will Trump say during Arizona rally?

Market Context

What will Trump say during Arizona rally?

About

Related

What will Trump say during Arizona rally?

Border 20+ times$40,387 Vol.Yescircle check

Border 35+ times$88,441 Vol.Yescircle check

Tax 30+ times$50,653 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Million 15+ times$18,933 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Gun 5+ times$67,478 Vol.Yescircle check

Sleepy/Crooked Joe 4+ times$10,383 Vol.Nocircle xmark

MAGA 4+ times$20,575 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Venezuela 3+ times$961,361 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Hispanic$11,736 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Insane Asylum$23,635 Vol.Yescircle check

Every State Is A Border State$16,842 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Nayib Bukele$4,925 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Border Kari Lake$18,665 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Barack Hussein Obama$12,270 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Dark MAGA$26,126 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Tampon$6,922 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Trans$78,720 Vol.Yescircle check

Salt/SALT$14,714 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Market Context

What will Trump say during Arizona rally?

Rules

What will Trump say during Arizona rally?

Market Context

What will Trump say during Arizona rally?

About

Related

Border 20+ times
$40,387 Vol.
Yes

Border 35+ times
$88,441 Vol.
Yes

Tax 30+ times
$50,653 Vol.
No

Million 15+ times
$18,933 Vol.
No

Gun 5+ times
$67,478 Vol.
Yes

Sleepy/Crooked Joe 4+ times
$10,383 Vol.
No

MAGA 4+ times
$20,575 Vol.
No

Venezuela 3+ times
$961,361 Vol.
No

Hispanic
$11,736 Vol.
No

Insane Asylum
$23,635 Vol.
Yes

Every State Is A Border State
$16,842 Vol.
No

Nayib Bukele
$4,925 Vol.
No

Border Kari Lake
$18,665 Vol.
No

Barack Hussein Obama
$12,270 Vol.
No

Dark MAGA
$26,126 Vol.
No

Tampon
$6,922 Vol.
No

Trans
$78,720 Vol.
Yes

Salt/SALT
$14,714 Vol.
No