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Economy·Jerome Powell

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

Market icon
Economy·Jerome Powell

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

$1,274,066 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026
Polymarket

$1,274,066 Vol.

Polymarket

↑ 5.5%

$43,011 Vol.

4%

↑ 5.25%

$136,128 Vol.

5%

↑ 5.0%

$10,015 Vol.

4%

↑ 4.75%

$65,847 Vol.

4%

↑ 4.5%

$10,285 Vol.

6%

↑ 4.25%

$21,882 Vol.

9%

↓ 3.25%

$53,702 Vol.

66%

↓ 3.0%

$215,935 Vol.

35%

↓ 2.75%

$250,422 Vol.

19%

↓ 2.5%

$172,085 Vol.

19%

↓ 2.25%

$21,904 Vol.

11%

↓ 2.0%

$15,041 Vol.

11%

↓ 1.75%

$5,983 Vol.

9%

↓ 1.5%

$24,836 Vol.

9%

↓ 1.25%

$893 Vol.

26%

↓ 1.0%

$0 Vol.

9%

↓ 0.75%

$388 Vol.

12%

↓ 0.5%

$89,265 Vol.

5%

↓ 0.25%

$117,253 Vol.

6%

↓ 0%

$10,187 Vol.

7%

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.Trader sentiment hinges on the Federal Reserve's March 2026 FOMC decision to hold the federal funds target range at 3.50%-3.75%, supported by year-over-year CPI inflation steady at 2.4% through February and unemployment at 4.4%, despite February nonfarm payrolls declining 92,000. The dot plot median projects a 3.4% rate by end-2026—implying one 25-basis-point cut—and low-3% by 2027, but CME FedWatch probabilities have shifted toward zero cuts this year amid oil price spikes and geopolitical risks tempering easing expectations. Upcoming April 10 CPI, early-May nonfarm payrolls, and April 28-29 FOMC meeting loom as pivotal for assessing if rates breach key thresholds before 2027.

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.

The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.
Volume
$1,274,066
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 18, 2025, 3:37 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.Trader sentiment hinges on the Federal Reserve's March 2026 FOMC decision to hold the federal funds target range at 3.50%-3.75%, supported by year-over-year CPI inflation steady at 2.4% through February and unemployment at 4.4%, despite February nonfarm payrolls declining 92,000. The dot plot median projects a 3.4% rate by end-2026—implying one 25-basis-point cut—and low-3% by 2027, but CME FedWatch probabilities have shifted toward zero cuts this year amid oil price spikes and geopolitical risks tempering easing expectations. Upcoming April 10 CPI, early-May nonfarm payrolls, and April 28-29 FOMC meeting loom as pivotal for assessing if rates breach key thresholds before 2027.

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.

The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.
Volume
$1,274,066
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 18, 2025, 3:37 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 21 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is " ↓ 3.5%" at 100%, followed by " ↓ 3.25%" at 66%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?" has generated $1.3 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 18, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?," browse the 21 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?" is " ↓ 3.5%" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is " ↓ 3.25%" at 66%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.