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Economy·Jerome Powell

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

Market icon
Economy·Jerome Powell

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

$1,272,027 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026
Polymarket

$1,272,027 Vol.

Polymarket

↑ 5.5%

$42,444 Vol.

4%

↑ 5.25%

$136,128 Vol.

5%

↑ 5.0%

$10,015 Vol.

3%

↑ 4.75%

$65,806 Vol.

4%

↑ 4.5%

$10,239 Vol.

5%

↑ 4.25%

$21,882 Vol.

9%

↓ 3.25%

$53,238 Vol.

69%

↓ 3.0%

$215,740 Vol.

33%

↓ 2.75%

$250,398 Vol.

18%

↓ 2.5%

$171,423 Vol.

15%

↓ 2.25%

$21,904 Vol.

11%

↓ 2.0%

$15,041 Vol.

11%

↓ 1.75%

$5,943 Vol.

9%

↓ 1.5%

$24,836 Vol.

9%

↓ 1.25%

$893 Vol.

26%

↓ 1.0%

$0 Vol.

10%

↓ 0.75%

$388 Vol.

9%

↓ 0.5%

$89,265 Vol.

6%

↓ 0.25%

$117,253 Vol.

6%

↓ 0%

$10,187 Vol.

7%

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.The Federal Reserve held the federal funds target range steady at 3.5%-3.75% after its March 18, 2026 FOMC meeting, with the dot plot median projecting a single 25 basis point cut to 3.4% by year-end 2026, reflecting resilient 2.4% year-over-year CPI inflation in February and unemployment edging up to 4.4%. Polymarket trader consensus, backed by over $1 million in volume, prices in gradual easing amid solid 2.4% GDP growth forecasts, though labor market softening and persistent core inflation pose barriers to deeper cuts before 2027. Traders eye the April 10 CPI data and April 28-29 FOMC for catalysts that could accelerate rate path expectations versus official guidance.

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.

The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.
Volume
$1,272,027
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 18, 2025, 3:37 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.The Federal Reserve held the federal funds target range steady at 3.5%-3.75% after its March 18, 2026 FOMC meeting, with the dot plot median projecting a single 25 basis point cut to 3.4% by year-end 2026, reflecting resilient 2.4% year-over-year CPI inflation in February and unemployment edging up to 4.4%. Polymarket trader consensus, backed by over $1 million in volume, prices in gradual easing amid solid 2.4% GDP growth forecasts, though labor market softening and persistent core inflation pose barriers to deeper cuts before 2027. Traders eye the April 10 CPI data and April 28-29 FOMC for catalysts that could accelerate rate path expectations versus official guidance.

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.

The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.
Volume
$1,272,027
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 18, 2025, 3:37 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 21 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is " ↓ 3.5%" at 100%, followed by " ↓ 3.25%" at 69%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?" has generated $1.3 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 18, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?," browse the 21 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?" is " ↓ 3.5%" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is " ↓ 3.25%" at 69%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.