The Federal Reserve has held the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% since early 2026, with the March FOMC dot plot projecting a median 3.4% by year-end—implying one 25 basis point cut—amid February CPI inflation steady at 2.4% above the 2% target and a robust labor market. March nonfarm payrolls rose 178,000, beating expectations, as unemployment dipped to 4.3%, reinforcing trader consensus via Polymarket and CME FedWatch futures for a mostly flat rate path around 3.6% through 2026. Upcoming April 28-29 FOMC meeting and April CPI release could sway easing expectations before 2027 resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedWhat will Fed Rate hit before 2027?
What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?
$1,277,767 Vol.
↑ 5.5%
4%
↑ 5.25%
5%
↑ 5.0%
3%
↑ 4.75%
4%
↑ 4.5%
5%
↑ 4.25%
9%
↓ 3.25%
66%
↓ 3.0%
34%
↓ 2.75%
19%
↓ 2.5%
16%
↓ 2.25%
7%
↓ 2.0%
8%
↓ 1.75%
9%
↓ 1.5%
9%
↓ 1.25%
24%
↓ 1.0%
9%
↓ 0.75%
8%
↓ 0.5%
7%
↓ 0.25%
7%
↓ 0%
8%
$1,277,767 Vol.
↑ 5.5%
4%
↑ 5.25%
5%
↑ 5.0%
3%
↑ 4.75%
4%
↑ 4.5%
5%
↑ 4.25%
9%
↓ 3.25%
66%
↓ 3.0%
34%
↓ 2.75%
19%
↓ 2.5%
16%
↓ 2.25%
7%
↓ 2.0%
8%
↓ 1.75%
9%
↓ 1.5%
9%
↓ 1.25%
24%
↓ 1.0%
9%
↓ 0.75%
8%
↓ 0.5%
7%
↓ 0.25%
7%
↓ 0%
8%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.
Market Opened: Nov 18, 2025, 3:37 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...The Federal Reserve has held the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% since early 2026, with the March FOMC dot plot projecting a median 3.4% by year-end—implying one 25 basis point cut—amid February CPI inflation steady at 2.4% above the 2% target and a robust labor market. March nonfarm payrolls rose 178,000, beating expectations, as unemployment dipped to 4.3%, reinforcing trader consensus via Polymarket and CME FedWatch futures for a mostly flat rate path around 3.6% through 2026. Upcoming April 28-29 FOMC meeting and April CPI release could sway easing expectations before 2027 resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated



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