Utah's 3rd Congressional District House race favors the Republican Party at 86% trader consensus odds, driven by the district's deep-red partisan lean—rated R+13 Cook PVI, where Donald Trump won by 29 points in 2020 and former incumbent John Curtis secured reelection by over 50 points. With Curtis vacating for a Senate bid, GOP nominee John Durrant clinched the June 25 primary with 59.5% against a crowded field, positioning a strong conservative contender against Democratic nominee Stewart L. Watson, who faces steep historical barriers in this safely Republican seat per Cook Political Report and other forecasters. No recent polls or developments have shifted dynamics since primaries, though national trends or turnout could influence the closely watched November 5 general election outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedUT-03 House Election Winner
UT-03 House Election Winner
NEW
NEW
Nov 4, 2026
Republican Party
85%
Democratic Party
16%
NEW
NEW
Nov 4, 2026
Republican Party
$0 Vol.
85%
Democratic Party
$0 Vol.
16%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Utah's 3rd Congressional District House race favors the Republican Party at 86% trader consensus odds, driven by the district's deep-red partisan lean—rated R+13 Cook PVI, where Donald Trump won by 29 points in 2020 and former incumbent John Curtis secured reelection by over 50 points. With Curtis vacating for a Senate bid, GOP nominee John Durrant clinched the June 25 primary with 59.5% against a crowded field, positioning a strong conservative contender against Democratic nominee Stewart L. Watson, who faces steep historical barriers in this safely Republican seat per Cook Political Report and other forecasters. No recent polls or developments have shifted dynamics since primaries, though national trends or turnout could influence the closely watched November 5 general election outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Utah's 3rd Congressional District House race favors the Republican Party at 86% trader consensus odds, driven by the district's deep-red partisan lean—rated R+13 Cook PVI, where Donald Trump won by 29 points in 2020 and former incumbent John Curtis secured reelection by over 50 points. With Curtis vacating for a Senate bid, GOP nominee John Durrant clinched the June 25 primary with 59.5% against a crowded field, positioning a strong conservative contender against Democratic nominee Stewart L. Watson, who faces steep historical barriers in this safely Republican seat per Cook Political Report and other forecasters. No recent polls or developments have shifted dynamics since primaries, though national trends or turnout could influence the closely watched November 5 general election outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$0End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Utah's 3rd Congressional District House race favors the Republican Party at 86% trader consensus odds, driven by the district's deep-red partisan lean—rated R+13 Cook PVI, where Donald Trump won by 29 points in 2020 and former incumbent John Curtis secured reelection by over 50 points. With Curtis vacating for a Senate bid, GOP nominee John Durrant clinched the June 25 primary with 59.5% against a crowded field, positioning a strong conservative contender against Democratic nominee Stewart L. Watson, who faces steep historical barriers in this safely Republican seat per Cook Political Report and other forecasters. No recent polls or developments have shifted dynamics since primaries, though national trends or turnout could influence the closely watched November 5 general election outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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