Utah's 3rd congressional district maintains a pronounced Republican tilt, reflected in the strong trader consensus favoring the party's nominee in the November general election. Recent state party conventions narrowed the Republican field, with incumbent Celeste Maloy securing delegate support over challenger Phil Lyman by a narrow margin, though both advanced to the June 23 primary. The district's partisan voting index and recent presidential results underscore consistent GOP dominance across most counties. Democratic nominee Kent Udell faces structural barriers in a seat where Republicans have held comfortable majorities in prior cycles. These dynamics, combined with limited polling shifts since the convention, position the Republican outcome as the clear frontrunner while leaving room for primary volatility to influence final positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedUT-03 House Election Winner
UT-03 House Election Winner
NEW
NEW
Nov 4, 2026
Republican Party
80%
Democratic Party
22%
NEW
NEW
Nov 4, 2026
Republican Party
$283 Vol.
80%
Democratic Party
$58 Vol.
22%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Utah's 3rd congressional district maintains a pronounced Republican tilt, reflected in the strong trader consensus favoring the party's nominee in the November general election. Recent state party conventions narrowed the Republican field, with incumbent Celeste Maloy securing delegate support over challenger Phil Lyman by a narrow margin, though both advanced to the June 23 primary. The district's partisan voting index and recent presidential results underscore consistent GOP dominance across most counties. Democratic nominee Kent Udell faces structural barriers in a seat where Republicans have held comfortable majorities in prior cycles. These dynamics, combined with limited polling shifts since the convention, position the Republican outcome as the clear frontrunner while leaving room for primary volatility to influence final positioning.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ET
Volume
$341End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Utah's 3rd congressional district maintains a pronounced Republican tilt, reflected in the strong trader consensus favoring the party's nominee in the November general election. Recent state party conventions narrowed the Republican field, with incumbent Celeste Maloy securing delegate support over challenger Phil Lyman by a narrow margin, though both advanced to the June 23 primary. The district's partisan voting index and recent presidential results underscore consistent GOP dominance across most counties. Democratic nominee Kent Udell faces structural barriers in a seat where Republicans have held comfortable majorities in prior cycles. These dynamics, combined with limited polling shifts since the convention, position the Republican outcome as the clear frontrunner while leaving room for primary volatility to influence final positioning.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$341End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Utah's 3rd congressional district maintains a pronounced Republican tilt, reflected in the strong trader consensus favoring the party's nominee in the November general election. Recent state party conventions narrowed the Republican field, with incumbent Celeste Maloy securing delegate support over challenger Phil Lyman by a narrow margin, though both advanced to the June 23 primary. The district's partisan voting index and recent presidential results underscore consistent GOP dominance across most counties. Democratic nominee Kent Udell faces structural barriers in a seat where Republicans have held comfortable majorities in prior cycles. These dynamics, combined with limited polling shifts since the convention, position the Republican outcome as the clear frontrunner while leaving room for primary volatility to influence final positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions