President Trump's March 27 statement declaring "Cuba is next" after touting recent US military successes has heightened geopolitical tensions, amid an ongoing US oil blockade initiated in February that has plunged Cuba into nationwide blackouts, shortages, and economic crisis. Cuban officials, including the deputy foreign minister, affirmed on March 22 that their military stands prepared for potential aggression, while Havana engages in backchannel talks with Washington to avert confrontation. The White House's recent approval of a sanctioned Russian tanker to Cuba signals possible de-escalation, though no qualifying US drone, missile, or airstrike on Cuban soil has occurred. Traders monitor for executive actions or further rhetoric that could prompt aerial strikes before year-end, with historical US-Cuba relations underscoring low base rates for direct military intervention.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedUS strike on Cuba by...?
US strike on Cuba by...?
$2,969,162 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
March 31
<1%
December 31
35%
$2,969,162 Vol.
March 31
$1,634,725 Vol.
<1%
December 31
$799,994 Vol.
35%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.President Trump's March 27 statement declaring "Cuba is next" after touting recent US military successes has heightened geopolitical tensions, amid an ongoing US oil blockade initiated in February that has plunged Cuba into nationwide blackouts, shortages, and economic crisis. Cuban officials, including the deputy foreign minister, affirmed on March 22 that their military stands prepared for potential aggression, while Havana engages in backchannel talks with Washington to avert confrontation. The White House's recent approval of a sanctioned Russian tanker to Cuba signals possible de-escalation, though no qualifying US drone, missile, or airstrike on Cuban soil has occurred. Traders monitor for executive actions or further rhetoric that could prompt aerial strikes before year-end, with historical US-Cuba relations underscoring low base rates for direct military intervention.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Market Opened: Jan 4, 2026, 3:08 PM ET
Volume
$2,969,162End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 4, 2026, 3:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.President Trump's March 27 statement declaring "Cuba is next" after touting recent US military successes has heightened geopolitical tensions, amid an ongoing US oil blockade initiated in February that has plunged Cuba into nationwide blackouts, shortages, and economic crisis. Cuban officials, including the deputy foreign minister, affirmed on March 22 that their military stands prepared for potential aggression, while Havana engages in backchannel talks with Washington to avert confrontation. The White House's recent approval of a sanctioned Russian tanker to Cuba signals possible de-escalation, though no qualifying US drone, missile, or airstrike on Cuban soil has occurred. Traders monitor for executive actions or further rhetoric that could prompt aerial strikes before year-end, with historical US-Cuba relations underscoring low base rates for direct military intervention.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Volume
$2,969,162End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 4, 2026, 3:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Trump's March 27 statement declaring "Cuba is next" after touting recent US military successes has heightened geopolitical tensions, amid an ongoing US oil blockade initiated in February that has plunged Cuba into nationwide blackouts, shortages, and economic crisis. Cuban officials, including the deputy foreign minister, affirmed on March 22 that their military stands prepared for potential aggression, while Havana engages in backchannel talks with Washington to avert confrontation. The White House's recent approval of a sanctioned Russian tanker to Cuba signals possible de-escalation, though no qualifying US drone, missile, or airstrike on Cuban soil has occurred. Traders monitor for executive actions or further rhetoric that could prompt aerial strikes before year-end, with historical US-Cuba relations underscoring low base rates for direct military intervention.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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