Recent reports from late March 2026 indicate the Trump administration is preparing to resume underground nuclear explosive testing at the Nevada National Security Site, ending a voluntary moratorium observed since 1992, amid accusations of Chinese clandestine tests in 2020 and Russian violations of arms control pacts like New START, which expired in February. A top Energy Department official declined to rule out tests during a March 24 Senate hearing, while Nevada's congressional delegation introduced bills to block resumption over environmental and safety concerns. No test has occurred yet, but Department of Energy and National Nuclear Security Administration modernization efforts fuel trader consensus implying a 50% chance by September 30, 2026, ahead of fiscal year-end pressures; key watchpoints include potential announcements, congressional holds, or CTBT-related diplomacy.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedU.S. nuclear test by...?
U.S. nuclear test by...?
$610,984 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
June 30, 2026
2%
September 30, 2026
11%
December 31, 2026
16%
$610,984 Vol.
June 30, 2026
$0 Vol.
2%
September 30, 2026
$122 Vol.
11%
December 31, 2026
$643 Vol.
16%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent reports from late March 2026 indicate the Trump administration is preparing to resume underground nuclear explosive testing at the Nevada National Security Site, ending a voluntary moratorium observed since 1992, amid accusations of Chinese clandestine tests in 2020 and Russian violations of arms control pacts like New START, which expired in February. A top Energy Department official declined to rule out tests during a March 24 Senate hearing, while Nevada's congressional delegation introduced bills to block resumption over environmental and safety concerns. No test has occurred yet, but Department of Energy and National Nuclear Security Administration modernization efforts fuel trader consensus implying a 50% chance by September 30, 2026, ahead of fiscal year-end pressures; key watchpoints include potential announcements, congressional holds, or CTBT-related diplomacy.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Volume
$610,984End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent reports from late March 2026 indicate the Trump administration is preparing to resume underground nuclear explosive testing at the Nevada National Security Site, ending a voluntary moratorium observed since 1992, amid accusations of Chinese clandestine tests in 2020 and Russian violations of arms control pacts like New START, which expired in February. A top Energy Department official declined to rule out tests during a March 24 Senate hearing, while Nevada's congressional delegation introduced bills to block resumption over environmental and safety concerns. No test has occurred yet, but Department of Energy and National Nuclear Security Administration modernization efforts fuel trader consensus implying a 50% chance by September 30, 2026, ahead of fiscal year-end pressures; key watchpoints include potential announcements, congressional holds, or CTBT-related diplomacy.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$610,984End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent reports from late March 2026 indicate the Trump administration is preparing to resume underground nuclear explosive testing at the Nevada National Security Site, ending a voluntary moratorium observed since 1992, amid accusations of Chinese clandestine tests in 2020 and Russian violations of arms control pacts like New START, which expired in February. A top Energy Department official declined to rule out tests during a March 24 Senate hearing, while Nevada's congressional delegation introduced bills to block resumption over environmental and safety concerns. No test has occurred yet, but Department of Energy and National Nuclear Security Administration modernization efforts fuel trader consensus implying a 50% chance by September 30, 2026, ahead of fiscal year-end pressures; key watchpoints include potential announcements, congressional holds, or CTBT-related diplomacy.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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