US military forces entered Venezuela on January 3, 2026, conducting airstrikes on Caracas and capturing President Nicolás Maduro and his wife in a rapid operation, after which they were transported to the United States for trial. Since then, no further incursions have occurred, with trader consensus pricing low odds for renewed entry amid de-escalation: the US reopened its embassy in Caracas last week and lifted sanctions on acting President Delcy Rodríguez this week to support diplomatic normalization. Ongoing political transition under Rodríguez, regional reactions, and Maduro's US court proceedings represent key factors, though no scheduled events signal imminent escalation. Stabilization efforts have defined sentiment in the past 30 days.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated$1,260,924 Vol.
Jan 31, 2026
March 31
1%
June 30
10%
$1,260,924 Vol.
March 31
$4,076 Vol.
1%
June 30
$176,760 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Venezuela at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Venezuela to qualify. Entering Venezuela's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Venezuela for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US military forces entered Venezuela on January 3, 2026, conducting airstrikes on Caracas and capturing President Nicolás Maduro and his wife in a rapid operation, after which they were transported to the United States for trial. Since then, no further incursions have occurred, with trader consensus pricing low odds for renewed entry amid de-escalation: the US reopened its embassy in Caracas last week and lifted sanctions on acting President Delcy Rodríguez this week to support diplomatic normalization. Ongoing political transition under Rodríguez, regional reactions, and Maduro's US court proceedings represent key factors, though no scheduled events signal imminent escalation. Stabilization efforts have defined sentiment in the past 30 days.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Venezuela at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Venezuela to qualify. Entering Venezuela's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Venezuela for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Venezuela to qualify. Entering Venezuela's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Venezuela for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Feb 19, 2026, 4:12 PM ET
Volume
$1,260,924End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Feb 19, 2026, 4:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Venezuela at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Venezuela to qualify. Entering Venezuela's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Venezuela for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US military forces entered Venezuela on January 3, 2026, conducting airstrikes on Caracas and capturing President Nicolás Maduro and his wife in a rapid operation, after which they were transported to the United States for trial. Since then, no further incursions have occurred, with trader consensus pricing low odds for renewed entry amid de-escalation: the US reopened its embassy in Caracas last week and lifted sanctions on acting President Delcy Rodríguez this week to support diplomatic normalization. Ongoing political transition under Rodríguez, regional reactions, and Maduro's US court proceedings represent key factors, though no scheduled events signal imminent escalation. Stabilization efforts have defined sentiment in the past 30 days.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Venezuela at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Venezuela to qualify. Entering Venezuela's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Venezuela for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Venezuela to qualify. Entering Venezuela's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Venezuela for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,260,924End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Feb 19, 2026, 4:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US military forces entered Venezuela on January 3, 2026, conducting airstrikes on Caracas and capturing President Nicolás Maduro and his wife in a rapid operation, after which they were transported to the United States for trial. Since then, no further incursions have occurred, with trader consensus pricing low odds for renewed entry amid de-escalation: the US reopened its embassy in Caracas last week and lifted sanctions on acting President Delcy Rodríguez this week to support diplomatic normalization. Ongoing political transition under Rodríguez, regional reactions, and Maduro's US court proceedings represent key factors, though no scheduled events signal imminent escalation. Stabilization efforts have defined sentiment in the past 30 days.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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