**Trader consensus favors "No" at 58% for a Turkish constitutional referendum announcement in 2026, reflecting the absence of any official declaration midway through the year despite earlier signals.** Ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) insiders in late 2025 hinted at preparations for a late-2026 vote on constitutional reform, including potential term-limit adjustments amid President Erdoğan's mandate ending in 2028, but no parliamentary motion has advanced. The AKP-MHP alliance holds around 320 seats in the 600-seat Grand National Assembly, short of the 360-vote supermajority required to trigger a referendum on amendments. Recent January seat gains from opposition defections fell short of bridging the gap, while polls show majority public opposition to changes enabling re-election bids. Focus has shifted to economic strains and speculation on early parliamentary elections, underscoring procedural and political hurdles likely to prevent an announcement by year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
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Dec 31, 2026
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Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Trader consensus favors "No" at 58% for a Turkish constitutional referendum announcement in 2026, reflecting the absence of any official declaration midway through the year despite earlier signals.** Ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) insiders in late 2025 hinted at preparations for a late-2026 vote on constitutional reform, including potential term-limit adjustments amid President Erdoğan's mandate ending in 2028, but no parliamentary motion has advanced. The AKP-MHP alliance holds around 320 seats in the 600-seat Grand National Assembly, short of the 360-vote supermajority required to trigger a referendum on amendments. Recent January seat gains from opposition defections fell short of bridging the gap, while polls show majority public opposition to changes enabling re-election bids. Focus has shifted to economic strains and speculation on early parliamentary elections, underscoring procedural and political hurdles likely to prevent an announcement by year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Mar 13, 2026, 12:55 PM ET
Volume
$269End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 13, 2026, 12:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Trader consensus favors "No" at 58% for a Turkish constitutional referendum announcement in 2026, reflecting the absence of any official declaration midway through the year despite earlier signals.** Ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) insiders in late 2025 hinted at preparations for a late-2026 vote on constitutional reform, including potential term-limit adjustments amid President Erdoğan's mandate ending in 2028, but no parliamentary motion has advanced. The AKP-MHP alliance holds around 320 seats in the 600-seat Grand National Assembly, short of the 360-vote supermajority required to trigger a referendum on amendments. Recent January seat gains from opposition defections fell short of bridging the gap, while polls show majority public opposition to changes enabling re-election bids. Focus has shifted to economic strains and speculation on early parliamentary elections, underscoring procedural and political hurdles likely to prevent an announcement by year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$269End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 13, 2026, 12:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Trader consensus favors "No" at 58% for a Turkish constitutional referendum announcement in 2026, reflecting the absence of any official declaration midway through the year despite earlier signals.** Ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) insiders in late 2025 hinted at preparations for a late-2026 vote on constitutional reform, including potential term-limit adjustments amid President Erdoğan's mandate ending in 2028, but no parliamentary motion has advanced. The AKP-MHP alliance holds around 320 seats in the 600-seat Grand National Assembly, short of the 360-vote supermajority required to trigger a referendum on amendments. Recent January seat gains from opposition defections fell short of bridging the gap, while polls show majority public opposition to changes enabling re-election bids. Focus has shifted to economic strains and speculation on early parliamentary elections, underscoring procedural and political hurdles likely to prevent an announcement by year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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