Name: Trump positive favorability on April 1?
Start: 2025-01-14T22:47:22.444047Z
End: 2025-04-01T12:00:00Z

test_feature

Use the internal polymarket geolocation service.

poly_geo

Improved notification preferences and types.

notifications_v2

funkit_deposit

mobile_trading_v2

authenticated_book_ws

in_game_sports_trading

preferred_sports_odds_format

live_chat

buy_sell_widget_v3

mobile_buy_sell_widget_v3

sell_on_portfolio

Enable updates from the sports websocket.

sports_websocket

march_madness_2025

Improved in-game view for sports markets.

mobile_sports_overlay_v2

async_order_submission

Improved websocket for market trade data.

live_data_clob_market_websocket

live_data_clob_user_websocket

funkit_withdraw

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump’s favorable rating according to RealClearPolitics is higher than his unfavorable rating on April 1, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Trump’s favorable rating must be higher than his unfavorable rating for a “Yes” resolution; ties will not qualify.

The resolution source will be RealClearPolitics’ Favorability Ratings poll aggregator, https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/favorability/political-leaders, specifically the RCP average under the column labeled "Spread" checked at 12:00 PM ET (noon) on the resolution date.

The listed value as of the check time will be used to resolve this market regardless of the listed date range.

Changes in the methodology by which RealClearPolitics calculates the favorability rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

Please note the resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.8%, -3.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Trump Positive Favorability

Trump positive favorability on April 1?

This market will resolve to “Yes”, if Donald Trump’s favorable rating by FiveThirtyEight is higher than his unfavorable rating on February 1, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Trump’s favorable rating must be higher than his unfavorable rating, ties will not qualify.

The favorability rating for February 1 will be considered finalized once the next data point is available. If data for February 1 remains unavailable, the nearest previous favorability will be used.

The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's rating poll aggregator, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/, specifically the favorability rating indicated by the purple "favorable", and the orange “unfavorable” trend line for the resolution date. The box that 538 uses to calculate the difference using different precision is not relevant for this market - only the difference between favorable and unfavorable ratings that they report up to one decimal point is considered.

Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates the favorability rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

This market may only resolve to "No" once the first data point after February 1, 2025 is published. If no such data point is available by February 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recent data point prior to February 1, 2025.

Please note the resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g. 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Trump positive favorability on February 1?

This market will resolve to “Yes”, if Donald Trump’s favorable rating by FiveThirtyEight is higher than his unfavorable rating on March 1, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Trump’s favorable rating must be higher than his unfavorable rating, ties will not qualify.

The favorability rating for March 1 will be considered finalized once the next data point is available. If data for March 1 remains unavailable, the nearest previous favorability will be used.

The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's rating poll aggregator, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/, specifically the favorability rating indicated by the purple "favorable", and the orange “unfavorable” trend line for the resolution date. The box that 538 uses to calculate the difference using different precision is not relevant for this market - only the difference between favorable and unfavorable ratings that they report up to one decimal point is considered.

Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates the favorability rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

This market may only resolve to "No" once the first data point after March 1, 2025 is published. If no such data point is available by March 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recent data point prior to March 1, 2025.

Please note the resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g. 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.


Trump positive favorability on March 1?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump’s favorable rating according to RealClearPolitics is higher than his unfavorable rating on April 29, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Trump’s favorable rating must be higher than his unfavorable rating for a “Yes” resolution; ties will not qualify.

The resolution source will be RealClearPolitics’ Favorability Ratings poll aggregator, https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/favorability/political-leaders, specifically the RCP average under the column labeled "Spread" checked at 12:00 PM ET (noon) on the resolution date.

The listed value as of the check time will be used to resolve this market regardless of the listed date range.

Changes in the methodology by which RealClearPolitics calculates the favorability rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

Please note the resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.8%, -3.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Trump positive favorability on Day 100?

This market will resolve to “Yes”, if Donald Trump’s favorable rating by FiveThirtyEight is higher than his unfavorable rating on January 20, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Trump’s favorable rating must be higher than his unfavorable rating, ties will not qualify.

The favorability rating for Jan 20 will be considered finalized once the next data point is available. If data for Jan 20 remains unavailable, the nearest previous favorability will be used.

The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's rating poll aggregator, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/, specifically the favorability rating indicated by the purple "favorable", and the orange “unfavorable” trend line for the resolution date. The box that 538 uses to calculate the difference using different precision is not relevant for this market - only the difference between favorable and unfavorable ratings that they report up to one decimal point is considered.

Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates the favorability rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

This market may only resolve to "No" once the first data point after January  20, 2025 is published. If no such data point is available by January 24, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recent data point prior to January 20, 2025. 

Please note the resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g. 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.


Trump positive favorability on inauguration day?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between November 3, 2025, 12:00 AM ET and November 9, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.

Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.

Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

Will Trump say "Nvidia" this week? (November 3 - 9)

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between November 10, 2025, 12:00 AM ET and November 16, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.

Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.

Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

Will Trump say “MAGA" or "Make America Great Again” this week? (November 10 - 16)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between November 1, 2025, 12:00 AM ET and November 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.

Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.

Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

Will Trump say "Elon" or "Musk" in November?

This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives by simple majority vote to approve or pass one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump, between July 24, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used.

Trump impeached by end of 2026?

This market will resolve based on whether Donald Trump announces that he will vote for or endorse the listed candidate in the election named in the title.

If Donald Trump does not announce an endorsement by the day before the scheduled election at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Donald Trump's endorsement.

Will Trump endorse Steve Hilton in CA-Gov for Nov 2 2026 ET?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin talk by November 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

A talk is defined as any interaction between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, occurring either in person or through verbal communication by phone or video call.

Events that occurred prior to the start of this market will not qualify toward its resolution.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Trump talk to Putin by November 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump pardon Roger Stone in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald J. Trump, as President of the United States, signs into law a bill that lowers the maximum individual tax rate below 37% at any point between January 19 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Note that the cut does not need to go into effect before the resolution date - it just needs to be signed into law by then.

This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.



Will Trump cut taxes on high earners in 2025?

If U.S. President Donald Trump visits China by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g. https://twitter.com/POTUS), however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump visit China by March 31?

Donald Trump is scheduled to participate in events with the Prime Minister of Hungary on November 7, 2025 (see https://www.reuters.com/world/hungarys-orban-visit-trump-discuss-path-us-russia-meeting-2025-10-30/ rcna235637/rcrd90100).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during his appearance at events featuring the Prime Minister of Hungary on November 7, 2025. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Pluralization/possessive of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

This market is explicitly about scheduled events featuring both Donald Trump and the Prime Minister of Hungary (https://rollcall.com/factbase/trump/topic/calendar/). All such scheduled events featuring both on this date count. Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of named, scheduled events, or which feature one named individual but not the other, will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the events contain a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market.

If this event is definitively cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by November 7, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution.

Will Trump say "President Xi" during Hungary PM events on November 7?

Donald Trump is scheduled to participate in events with the President of Syria on November 10, 2025 (see https://www.nytimes.com/2025/11/02/us/politics/syrian-president-al-shara-washington-visit.html).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during his appearance at events featuring the President of Syria on November 10, 2025. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Pluralization/possessive of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

This market is explicitly about scheduled events featuring both Donald Trump and the President of Syria (https://rollcall.com/factbase/trump/topic/calendar/). All such scheduled events featuring both on this date count. Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of named, scheduled events, or which feature one named individual but not the other, will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the events contain a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market.

If this event is definitively cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by November 10, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution.

Will Donald Trump say "Sanction" 2+ times during Syria President events on November 10?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump and/or Melania Trump announce their intention to divorce between December 31, 2024 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement by December 31, 2025 of their intention to divorce will be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the divorce later actually occurs, or whether the actual divorce occurs outside of the timeframe of this market.

The resolution source will be statements from Donald Trump and/or Melania Trump , and their representatives, however a definitive consensus of credible media reporting may be considered.

Trump divorce in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin, and Volodymyr Zelensky are photographed or videotaped together, in the same frame, between August 6, 5:00 PM ET and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" the images or video must be taken and released within this market's timeframe. The images or video must be authentic, not the result of artificial intelligence or video editing.

The resolution source for this market will be the images or video of Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin, and Volodymyr Zelensky together.

Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks Benjamin Netanyahu personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

This includes calling Netanyahu weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, or using other derogatory language. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.

Any public statement made by Trump qualifies.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Trump publicly disparage Netanyahu by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG) buys any amount of $TRUMP (https://solscan.io/token/6p6xgHyF7AeE6TZkSmFsko444wqoP15icUSqi2jfGiPN), either directly or through a subsidiary, between July 21, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be announcements through official information from TMTG, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Trump Media buy $TRUMP in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Internal Revenue Department ceases operations entirely by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the IRS is merged with another agency, resulting in a consolidated department with a shared administrative structure which is no longer titled the Internal Revenue Service it will count as a "Yes" resolution.

If it becomes impossible for Trump to sign legislation/perform executive actions (e.g. he resigns), this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Trump abolishes IRS in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump publicly claims that any of the moon landings were faked by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The claim must come directly from Trump via a verified social media account, official public statement, or during a recorded interview, speech, or rally. Indirect remarks, jokes, or quotes taken out of context will not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be statements made by Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used to confirm the legitimacy of such statements.

Trump says Moon Landing faked in 2025?

On April 2, Donald Trump announced a 10% tariff on all imports set to take effect on April 5, 2025 at 12:01 a.m. EDT (see: https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/04/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-declares-national-emergency-to-increase-our-competitive-edge-protect-our-sovereignty-and-strengthen-our-national-and-economic-security/)

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump signs any federal legislation or performs any executive action which pauses, delays, or removes the 10% general tariff by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

Actions which remove the general 10% tariff will qualify even if there are item specific exceptions for which the tariff still applies. However, lowering the general tariff below 10% without removing it will not qualify.

Any action which is officially enacted within the market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the removal goes into effect.

This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.

Will Trump remove 10% blanket tariff in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.

Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Donald Trump announces that he is running for a third term as US President by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Trump must definitively state his intent to run (e.g., "I am running for a third term" or equivalent unambiguous language); vague comments, speculative or contingent remarks or jokes will not suffice. 

Past statements such his March 30 NBC phone interview where he stated "There are methods which you could do it, as you know... A lot of people want me to do it." or his November 13, 2024, where he stated "I suspect I won’t be running again unless you say, ‘He’s so good we’ve got to figure something else out.’" would NOT qualify. 

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by Donald Trump (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Trump announce run for 3rd term?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs a bill into law or performs any executive action changing US tax law to establish a de minimis tax exemption on cryptocurrency transactions by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Such a bill must apply to US taxpaying persons in general; if a law applies only to specific companies or institutions, it will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market.

If the tax exemption only applies for specific types or classes of crypto assets (e.g., only Bitcoin or Ethereum, only American issued cryptocurrencies, or only NFTs), it will still count toward a "Yes" resolution for this market.

If the bill is signed into law, or executive action is instituted before the resolution date, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of when it takes effect.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Trump enacts a de minimis crypto tax exemption before 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Changpeng Zhao and Roger Ver receive a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Trump positive favorability on April 1?

Market Context

Trump positive favorability on April 1?

Rules

Trump positive favorability on April 1?

Market Context

Trump positive favorability on April 1?

About

Related