SpaceX's confidential IPO filing, reported just hours ago and targeting a June 2026 listing at up to $1.75 trillion valuation while raising $75 billion, has solidified trader consensus at 93.5% implied probability for a closing market cap exceeding $1 trillion on this lowest-strikes market. This reflects private secondary valuations already surpassing $1.4 trillion as of February, fueled by Starlink's rapid satellite constellation expansion—now enabling seamless in-flight and Arctic connectivity—and Starship milestones like Super Heavy V3 cryogenic tests and 33-engine static fire preps. Reusable rocket dominance and orbital infrastructure leadership underpin the premium, with public market enthusiasm likely to amplify it further. Realistic challenges include volatile equity conditions, FAA launch approvals, or Starship delays, though no-IPO-before-2028 odds remain slim at 3.3%.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated1T+ 94%
No IPO before 2028 3.3%
900B–1T <1%
<500B <1%
$2,934,654 Vol.
$2,934,654 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
<500B
<1%
500B–600B
<1%
600B–700B
<1%
700B–800B
<1%
800B–900B
<1%
900B–1T
1%
1T+
94%
No IPO before 2028
3%
1T+ 94%
No IPO before 2028 3.3%
900B–1T <1%
<500B <1%
$2,934,654 Vol.
$2,934,654 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
<500B
$331,881 Vol.
<1%
500B–600B
$265,639 Vol.
<1%
600B–700B
$242,061 Vol.
<1%
700B–800B
$266,629 Vol.
<1%
800B–900B
$437,024 Vol.
<1%
900B–1T
$363,106 Vol.
1%
1T+
$518,906 Vol.
94%
No IPO before 2028
$509,409 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve based on SpaceX's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.SpaceX's confidential IPO filing, reported just hours ago and targeting a June 2026 listing at up to $1.75 trillion valuation while raising $75 billion, has solidified trader consensus at 93.5% implied probability for a closing market cap exceeding $1 trillion on this lowest-strikes market. This reflects private secondary valuations already surpassing $1.4 trillion as of February, fueled by Starlink's rapid satellite constellation expansion—now enabling seamless in-flight and Arctic connectivity—and Starship milestones like Super Heavy V3 cryogenic tests and 33-engine static fire preps. Reusable rocket dominance and orbital infrastructure leadership underpin the premium, with public market enthusiasm likely to amplify it further. Realistic challenges include volatile equity conditions, FAA launch approvals, or Starship delays, though no-IPO-before-2028 odds remain slim at 3.3%.
This market will resolve based on SpaceX's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Market Opened: Dec 5, 2025, 8:24 PM ET
Volume
$2,934,654End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
Dec 5, 2025, 8:24 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on SpaceX's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.SpaceX's confidential IPO filing, reported just hours ago and targeting a June 2026 listing at up to $1.75 trillion valuation while raising $75 billion, has solidified trader consensus at 93.5% implied probability for a closing market cap exceeding $1 trillion on this lowest-strikes market. This reflects private secondary valuations already surpassing $1.4 trillion as of February, fueled by Starlink's rapid satellite constellation expansion—now enabling seamless in-flight and Arctic connectivity—and Starship milestones like Super Heavy V3 cryogenic tests and 33-engine static fire preps. Reusable rocket dominance and orbital infrastructure leadership underpin the premium, with public market enthusiasm likely to amplify it further. Realistic challenges include volatile equity conditions, FAA launch approvals, or Starship delays, though no-IPO-before-2028 odds remain slim at 3.3%.
This market will resolve based on SpaceX's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volume
$2,934,654End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
Dec 5, 2025, 8:24 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...SpaceX's confidential IPO filing, reported just hours ago and targeting a June 2026 listing at up to $1.75 trillion valuation while raising $75 billion, has solidified trader consensus at 93.5% implied probability for a closing market cap exceeding $1 trillion on this lowest-strikes market. This reflects private secondary valuations already surpassing $1.4 trillion as of February, fueled by Starlink's rapid satellite constellation expansion—now enabling seamless in-flight and Arctic connectivity—and Starship milestones like Super Heavy V3 cryogenic tests and 33-engine static fire preps. Reusable rocket dominance and orbital infrastructure leadership underpin the premium, with public market enthusiasm likely to amplify it further. Realistic challenges include volatile equity conditions, FAA launch approvals, or Starship delays, though no-IPO-before-2028 odds remain slim at 3.3%.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions