Trader consensus implies a 91.5% probability against a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, driven by stalled U.S.-mediated trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi and Geneva, where Moscow demands Ukrainian territorial concessions in Donbas that Kyiv firmly rejects. Zelenskyy's Easter truce offer on energy infrastructure attacks, relayed via U.S. mediators three days ago, met a cool Kremlin response, followed by fresh Russian Shahed drone strikes on civilian targets two days ago. Ongoing Russian offensives and Ukrainian counterstrikes underscore persistent escalation, with recent Florida talks yielding only prisoner exchanges but no broader de-escalation signals. A diplomatic breakthrough or shifted U.S. leverage could alter odds, though current front-line advances favor prolonged conflict.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
$4,456,550 Vol.
$4,456,550 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
$4,456,550 Vol.
$4,456,550 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.Trader consensus implies a 91.5% probability against a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, driven by stalled U.S.-mediated trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi and Geneva, where Moscow demands Ukrainian territorial concessions in Donbas that Kyiv firmly rejects. Zelenskyy's Easter truce offer on energy infrastructure attacks, relayed via U.S. mediators three days ago, met a cool Kremlin response, followed by fresh Russian Shahed drone strikes on civilian targets two days ago. Ongoing Russian offensives and Ukrainian counterstrikes underscore persistent escalation, with recent Florida talks yielding only prisoner exchanges but no broader de-escalation signals. A diplomatic breakthrough or shifted U.S. leverage could alter odds, though current front-line advances favor prolonged conflict.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Market Opened: Jan 13, 2026, 2:18 PM ET
Volume
$4,456,550End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Jan 13, 2026, 2:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.Trader consensus implies a 91.5% probability against a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, driven by stalled U.S.-mediated trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi and Geneva, where Moscow demands Ukrainian territorial concessions in Donbas that Kyiv firmly rejects. Zelenskyy's Easter truce offer on energy infrastructure attacks, relayed via U.S. mediators three days ago, met a cool Kremlin response, followed by fresh Russian Shahed drone strikes on civilian targets two days ago. Ongoing Russian offensives and Ukrainian counterstrikes underscore persistent escalation, with recent Florida talks yielding only prisoner exchanges but no broader de-escalation signals. A diplomatic breakthrough or shifted U.S. leverage could alter odds, though current front-line advances favor prolonged conflict.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Volume
$4,456,550End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Jan 13, 2026, 2:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus implies a 91.5% probability against a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, driven by stalled U.S.-mediated trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi and Geneva, where Moscow demands Ukrainian territorial concessions in Donbas that Kyiv firmly rejects. Zelenskyy's Easter truce offer on energy infrastructure attacks, relayed via U.S. mediators three days ago, met a cool Kremlin response, followed by fresh Russian Shahed drone strikes on civilian targets two days ago. Ongoing Russian offensives and Ukrainian counterstrikes underscore persistent escalation, with recent Florida talks yielding only prisoner exchanges but no broader de-escalation signals. A diplomatic breakthrough or shifted U.S. leverage could alter odds, though current front-line advances favor prolonged conflict.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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