Market icon
Politics·Trump

RFK Jr. Out by December 31?

Market icon
Politics·Trump

RFK Jr. Out by December 31?

Dec 31

Dec 31

21% chance
Polymarket
NEW
21% chance
Polymarket
NEW
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK Jr.) ceases to be United States Secretary of Health and Human Services (HHS) for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK Jr.)'s resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK Jr.) and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trump's nomination of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. for Health and Human Services Secretary remains intact amid the presidential transition, with no official statements or actions signaling withdrawal before December 31, driving trader consensus to 79% on "No." RFK Jr. has addressed potential conflicts by announcing divestment from his anti-vaccine nonprofit Children's Health Defense and held introductory meetings with key senators, including Republicans on the Senate Health Committee, to build support ahead of confirmation hearings expected after inauguration. While some senators express reservations over his public health views, the incoming GOP Senate majority favors most Trump cabinet picks, and historical precedent shows over 90% confirmation rates for recent nominees. No recent scandals or party pressures have emerged to disrupt this trajectory.

Trump's nomination of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. for Health and Human Services Secretary remains intact amid the presidential transition, with no official statements or actions signaling withdrawal before December 31, driving trader consensus to 79% on "No." RFK Jr. has addressed potential conflicts by announcing divestment from his anti-vaccine nonprofit Children's Health Defense and held introductory meetings with key senators, including Republicans on the Senate Health Committee, to build support ahead of confirmation hearings expected after inauguration. While some senators express reservations over his public health views, the incoming GOP Senate majority favors most Trump cabinet picks, and historical precedent shows over 90% confirmation rates for recent nominees. No recent scandals or party pressures have emerged to disrupt this trajectory.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK Jr.) ceases to be United States Secretary of Health and Human Services (HHS) for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK Jr.)'s resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK Jr.) and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trump's nomination of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. for Health and Human Services Secretary remains intact amid the presidential transition, with no official statements or actions signaling withdrawal before December 31, driving trader consensus to 79% on "No." RFK Jr. has addressed potential conflicts by announcing divestment from his anti-vaccine nonprofit Children's Health Defense and held introductory meetings with key senators, including Republicans on the Senate Health Committee, to build support ahead of confirmation hearings expected after inauguration. While some senators express reservations over his public health views, the incoming GOP Senate majority favors most Trump cabinet picks, and historical precedent shows over 90% confirmation rates for recent nominees. No recent scandals or party pressures have emerged to disrupt this trajectory.

Trump's nomination of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. for Health and Human Services Secretary remains intact amid the presidential transition, with no official statements or actions signaling withdrawal before December 31, driving trader consensus to 79% on "No." RFK Jr. has addressed potential conflicts by announcing divestment from his anti-vaccine nonprofit Children's Health Defense and held introductory meetings with key senators, including Republicans on the Senate Health Committee, to build support ahead of confirmation hearings expected after inauguration. While some senators express reservations over his public health views, the incoming GOP Senate majority favors most Trump cabinet picks, and historical precedent shows over 90% confirmation rates for recent nominees. No recent scandals or party pressures have emerged to disrupt this trajectory.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"RFK Jr. Out by December 31?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 21% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 21¢, the market collectively assigns a 21% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"RFK Jr. Out by December 31?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Mar 19, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "RFK Jr. Out by December 31?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "RFK Jr. Out by December 31?" is 21% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 21% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "RFK Jr. Out by December 31?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.