Market icon
Politics·Senate Primary

Oklahoma Republican Senate Primary Winner

Market icon
Politics·Senate Primary

Oklahoma Republican Senate Primary Winner

Kevin Hern 91%

Nick Hankins 3.3%

Matt Pinnell 2.4%

Wayne Lonny Washington 1.7%

Polymarket

$12,834 Vol.

Kevin Hern 91%

Nick Hankins 3.3%

Matt Pinnell 2.4%

Wayne Lonny Washington 1.7%

Polymarket

$12,834 Vol.

Kevin Hern

$9,220 Vol.

91%

Nick Hankins

$0 Vol.

3%

Matt Pinnell

$0 Vol.

2%

Wayne Lonny Washington

$0 Vol.

2%

John M. O’Connor

$0 Vol.

2%

Stephanie Bice

$1,992 Vol.

1%

Markwayne Mullin

$0 Vol.

1%

Ron Meinhardt

$949 Vol.

1%

Tammy Swearengin

$674 Vol.

1%

Donelle Harder

$0 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Oklahoma. If no 2026 Oklahoma Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Oklahoma Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Rep. Kevin Hern's dominant position in the Oklahoma Republican Senate primary stems from Sen. Markwayne Mullin's recent nomination as DHS secretary, creating an open seat that Hern swiftly entered on March 11 with a formal campaign launch. His momentum surged with President Trump's endorsement on March 13, followed by Senate Majority Leader John Thune and NRSC Chair Tim Scott's backing on March 19, signaling establishment and MAGA alignment that has deterred major challengers. As former House Republican Policy Committee chair, Hern leverages incumbency advantages from his OK-01 House seat and fundraising prowess. Trader consensus at 90.5% reflects this cleared path ahead of the June 16 primary, though a high-profile late entrant like Gov. Kevin Stitt or endorsement shifts could challenge it.

Rep. Kevin Hern's dominant position in the Oklahoma Republican Senate primary stems from Sen. Markwayne Mullin's recent nomination as DHS secretary, creating an open seat that Hern swiftly entered on March 11 with a formal campaign launch. His momentum surged with President Trump's endorsement on March 13, followed by Senate Majority Leader John Thune and NRSC Chair Tim Scott's backing on March 19, signaling establishment and MAGA alignment that has deterred major challengers. As former House Republican Policy Committee chair, Hern leverages incumbency advantages from his OK-01 House seat and fundraising prowess. Trader consensus at 90.5% reflects this cleared path ahead of the June 16 primary, though a high-profile late entrant like Gov. Kevin Stitt or endorsement shifts could challenge it.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Oklahoma. If no 2026 Oklahoma Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Oklahoma Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Rep. Kevin Hern's dominant position in the Oklahoma Republican Senate primary stems from Sen. Markwayne Mullin's recent nomination as DHS secretary, creating an open seat that Hern swiftly entered on March 11 with a formal campaign launch. His momentum surged with President Trump's endorsement on March 13, followed by Senate Majority Leader John Thune and NRSC Chair Tim Scott's backing on March 19, signaling establishment and MAGA alignment that has deterred major challengers. As former House Republican Policy Committee chair, Hern leverages incumbency advantages from his OK-01 House seat and fundraising prowess. Trader consensus at 90.5% reflects this cleared path ahead of the June 16 primary, though a high-profile late entrant like Gov. Kevin Stitt or endorsement shifts could challenge it.

Rep. Kevin Hern's dominant position in the Oklahoma Republican Senate primary stems from Sen. Markwayne Mullin's recent nomination as DHS secretary, creating an open seat that Hern swiftly entered on March 11 with a formal campaign launch. His momentum surged with President Trump's endorsement on March 13, followed by Senate Majority Leader John Thune and NRSC Chair Tim Scott's backing on March 19, signaling establishment and MAGA alignment that has deterred major challengers. As former House Republican Policy Committee chair, Hern leverages incumbency advantages from his OK-01 House seat and fundraising prowess. Trader consensus at 90.5% reflects this cleared path ahead of the June 16 primary, though a high-profile late entrant like Gov. Kevin Stitt or endorsement shifts could challenge it.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

Related

Market icon

Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

26%
Market icon

Will John Thune be the next Senate Majority Leader?

35%
Market icon

2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House

49%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Oklahoma Republican Senate Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 10 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Kevin Hern" at 91%, followed by "Nick Hankins" at 3%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 91¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 91% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Oklahoma Republican Senate Primary Winner" has generated $12.8K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 5, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Oklahoma Republican Senate Primary Winner," browse the 10 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Oklahoma Republican Senate Primary Winner" is "Kevin Hern" at 91%, meaning the market assigns a 91% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Nick Hankins" at 3%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Oklahoma Republican Senate Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.