Market icon
Politics·England

Next UK Prime Minister in 2026?

Market icon
Politics·England

Next UK Prime Minister in 2026?

No Next PM in 2026 37%

Angela Rayner 23%

Ed Miliband 10.1%

Nigel Farage 8.4%

Polymarket

$3,818,712 Vol.

No Next PM in 2026 37%

Angela Rayner 23%

Ed Miliband 10.1%

Nigel Farage 8.4%

Polymarket

$3,818,712 Vol.

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No Next PM in 2026

$122,684 Vol.

37%

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Angela Rayner

$255,734 Vol.

23%

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Ed Miliband

$174,077 Vol.

10%

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Nigel Farage

$553,982 Vol.

8%

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Wes Streeting

$61,035 Vol.

6%

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Yvette Cooper

$153,879 Vol.

4%

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Andy Burnham

$293,216 Vol.

4%

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Rupert Lowe

$567,950 Vol.

4%

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Shabana Mahmood

$198,264 Vol.

2%

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Al Carns

$102,504 Vol.

1%

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Lucy Powell

$0 Vol.

1%

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David Lammy

$96,613 Vol.

1%

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Rachel Reeves

$352,969 Vol.

<1%

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James Cleverly

$150,337 Vol.

<1%

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Kemi Badenoch

$110,978 Vol.

<1%

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Ed Davey

$101,834 Vol.

<1%

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Boris Johnson

$147,095 Vol.

<1%

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Darren Jones

$123,162 Vol.

<1%

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Bridget Phillipson

$57,753 Vol.

<1%

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Robert Jenrick

$194,677 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the United Kingdom Monarch. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is appointed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next PM in 2026”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No Next PM in 2026" at 36.5%, reflecting bets that Keir Starmer will endure despite his net approval rating hitting -48% in March polls amid economic pressures and policy rows. Angela Rayner's 23% lead among alternatives stems from her March 17 speech at a Labour event, where she warned the party is "running out of time" to deliver change, critiqued immigration reforms as "un-British," and rallied MPs to "rebuild this party," fueling speculation of a May leadership challenge. Ed Miliband's 10.1% and Nigel Farage's 8.5% gain traction from cabinet positioning and Reform UK's national poll lead, though no snap election is scheduled before 2029 absent a no-confidence vote.

Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No Next PM in 2026" at 36.5%, reflecting bets that Keir Starmer will endure despite his net approval rating hitting -48% in March polls amid economic pressures and policy rows. Angela Rayner's 23% lead among alternatives stems from her March 17 speech at a Labour event, where she warned the party is "running out of time" to deliver change, critiqued immigration reforms as "un-British," and rallied MPs to "rebuild this party," fueling speculation of a May leadership challenge. Ed Miliband's 10.1% and Nigel Farage's 8.5% gain traction from cabinet positioning and Reform UK's national poll lead, though no snap election is scheduled before 2029 absent a no-confidence vote.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the United Kingdom Monarch. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is appointed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next PM in 2026”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No Next PM in 2026" at 36.5%, reflecting bets that Keir Starmer will endure despite his net approval rating hitting -48% in March polls amid economic pressures and policy rows. Angela Rayner's 23% lead among alternatives stems from her March 17 speech at a Labour event, where she warned the party is "running out of time" to deliver change, critiqued immigration reforms as "un-British," and rallied MPs to "rebuild this party," fueling speculation of a May leadership challenge. Ed Miliband's 10.1% and Nigel Farage's 8.5% gain traction from cabinet positioning and Reform UK's national poll lead, though no snap election is scheduled before 2029 absent a no-confidence vote.

Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No Next PM in 2026" at 36.5%, reflecting bets that Keir Starmer will endure despite his net approval rating hitting -48% in March polls amid economic pressures and policy rows. Angela Rayner's 23% lead among alternatives stems from her March 17 speech at a Labour event, where she warned the party is "running out of time" to deliver change, critiqued immigration reforms as "un-British," and rallied MPs to "rebuild this party," fueling speculation of a May leadership challenge. Ed Miliband's 10.1% and Nigel Farage's 8.5% gain traction from cabinet positioning and Reform UK's national poll lead, though no snap election is scheduled before 2029 absent a no-confidence vote.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Next UK Prime Minister in 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 20 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "No Next PM in 2026" at 37%, followed by "Angela Rayner" at 23%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 37¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Next UK Prime Minister in 2026?" has generated $3.8 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 5, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Next UK Prime Minister in 2026?," browse the 20 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Next UK Prime Minister in 2026?" is "No Next PM in 2026" at 37%, meaning the market assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Angela Rayner" at 23%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Next UK Prime Minister in 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.