Market icon
Tech·Big Tech

Next CEO of Apple?

Market icon
Tech·Big Tech

Next CEO of Apple?

John Ternus 44%

Sabih Khan 14%

Craig Federighi 7.0%

Greg Joswiak 3.2%

Polymarket

$667,927 Vol.

John Ternus 44%

Sabih Khan 14%

Craig Federighi 7.0%

Greg Joswiak 3.2%

Polymarket

$667,927 Vol.

John Ternus

$578,789 Vol.

44%

Sabih Khan

$7,698 Vol.

14%

Craig Federighi

$31,481 Vol.

7%

Greg Joswiak

$49,959 Vol.

10%

This market will resolve according to the first individual who is officially announced as the next permanent successor to Tim Cook as CEO of Apple Inc. by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement of a successor will be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether the announced replacement actually becomes the next CEO of Apple. Interim CEOs will not qualify. If no permanent successor to Tim Cook as CEO of Apple Inc. is announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source will be public statements from Apple Inc.Trader consensus on Polymarket positions Apple senior vice president of hardware engineering John Ternus as the clear front-runner at 44% implied probability for next CEO, propelled by a March 22 Bloomberg profile featuring insider interviews that highlight his growing support as Tim Cook's low-profile heir apparent amid Apple's AI hardware push. Ternus's January expansion into design oversight—key for products like iPhone and Mac—further cements his technical leadership edge over operations SVP Sabih Khan (14%), marketing head Greg Joswiak (10.1%), and software chief Craig Federighi (7%). While Cook quashed near-term retirement talk, accelerated succession planning reflects board priorities; watch for visibility at WWDC or earnings calls that could shift these closely watched odds.

This market will resolve according to the first individual who is officially announced as the next permanent successor to Tim Cook as CEO of Apple Inc. by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

An announcement of a successor will be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether the announced replacement actually becomes the next CEO of Apple.

Interim CEOs will not qualify.

If no permanent successor to Tim Cook as CEO of Apple Inc. is announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source will be public statements from Apple Inc.
Volume
$667,927
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 18, 2025, 3:08 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the first individual who is officially announced as the next permanent successor to Tim Cook as CEO of Apple Inc. by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement of a successor will be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether the announced replacement actually becomes the next CEO of Apple. Interim CEOs will not qualify. If no permanent successor to Tim Cook as CEO of Apple Inc. is announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source will be public statements from Apple Inc.
This market will resolve according to the first individual who is officially announced as the next permanent successor to Tim Cook as CEO of Apple Inc. by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement of a successor will be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether the announced replacement actually becomes the next CEO of Apple. Interim CEOs will not qualify. If no permanent successor to Tim Cook as CEO of Apple Inc. is announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source will be public statements from Apple Inc.Trader consensus on Polymarket positions Apple senior vice president of hardware engineering John Ternus as the clear front-runner at 44% implied probability for next CEO, propelled by a March 22 Bloomberg profile featuring insider interviews that highlight his growing support as Tim Cook's low-profile heir apparent amid Apple's AI hardware push. Ternus's January expansion into design oversight—key for products like iPhone and Mac—further cements his technical leadership edge over operations SVP Sabih Khan (14%), marketing head Greg Joswiak (10.1%), and software chief Craig Federighi (7%). While Cook quashed near-term retirement talk, accelerated succession planning reflects board priorities; watch for visibility at WWDC or earnings calls that could shift these closely watched odds.

This market will resolve according to the first individual who is officially announced as the next permanent successor to Tim Cook as CEO of Apple Inc. by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

An announcement of a successor will be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether the announced replacement actually becomes the next CEO of Apple.

Interim CEOs will not qualify.

If no permanent successor to Tim Cook as CEO of Apple Inc. is announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source will be public statements from Apple Inc.
Volume
$667,927
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 18, 2025, 3:08 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the first individual who is officially announced as the next permanent successor to Tim Cook as CEO of Apple Inc. by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement of a successor will be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether the announced replacement actually becomes the next CEO of Apple. Interim CEOs will not qualify. If no permanent successor to Tim Cook as CEO of Apple Inc. is announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source will be public statements from Apple Inc.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Next CEO of Apple?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "John Ternus" at 44%, followed by "Sabih Khan" at 14%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 44¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 44% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Next CEO of Apple?" has generated $667.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 18, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Next CEO of Apple?," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Next CEO of Apple?" is "John Ternus" at 44%, meaning the market assigns a 44% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Sabih Khan" at 14%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Next CEO of Apple?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.