Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Netanyahu out by...?

Name: Netanyahu out by...?
Start: 2025-07-24T23:47:39.166Z
End: 2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z

World·Middle East

Netanyahu out by...?

Dec 31

$58,310,536 Vol.

Mar 31, 2026

March 31

$55,080,581 Vol.

April 30

$393,777 Vol.

June 30

$2,054,752 Vol.

12%

December 31

$783,093 Vol.

48%

$58,310,536 Vol.

March 31

$55,080,581 Vol.

April 30

$393,777 Vol.

June 30

$2,054,752 Vol.

12%

December 31

$783,093 Vol.

48%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Benjamin Netanyahu ceases to be Prime Minister of Israel for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Benjamin Netanyahu's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Benjamin Netanyahu and the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Trader consensus on Netanyahu's tenure reflects his coalition's firm 64-seat majority in the Knesset, bolstered by the recent passage of the 2025 budget that quelled internal dissent. Protests over the Gaza war and hostage crisis persist, with polls showing opposition parties leading by double digits, yet no viable no-confidence motion has emerged amid ongoing Hezbollah clashes. Donald Trump's U.S. election win provides diplomatic tailwinds, potentially easing international pressure like the ICC warrant. Key risks include coalition fractures from war fatigue or failed hostage deals; watch January's Knesset sessions and northern border developments for shifts in stability.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated Mar 21, 2026, 10:45 PM UTC

Will Netanyahu be pardoned by June 30?

22%

Will Netanyahu visit NYC by March 31?

Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?

38%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Netanyahu out by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "December 31" at 48%, followed by "June 30" at 12%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 48¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 48% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Netanyahu out by...?" has generated $58.3 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 24, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Netanyahu out by...?," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Netanyahu out by...?" is "December 31" at 48%, meaning the market assigns a 48% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "June 30" at 12%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Netanyahu out by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "Netanyahu out by...?." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.

Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $58.3 million traded on “Netanyahu out by...?,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

To place your first trade on "Netanyahu out by...?," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.

On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 48¢ for "December 31" in the "Netanyahu out by...?" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 48% chance that "December 31" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 48¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 52¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.

The "Netanyahu out by...?" market is scheduled to resolve on or around Dec 31, 2026. This means trading will remain open and the odds will continue to shift as new information emerges until that date. The exact resolution timing depends on when the official result becomes available, as outlined in the "Rules" section on this page.

The "Netanyahu out by...?" market has an active community of 1,768 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by "Top Holders" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of trades.

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "Netanyahu out by...?." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.

Note on Middle East Markets

Netanyahu out by...?

Netanyahu out by...?

Rules

Market Context

Market Context

Related

Comments (1,768)

Top Holders

Positions

Activity

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the "Netanyahu out by...?" prediction market?

How much trading activity has "Netanyahu out by...?" generated on Polymarket?

How do I trade on "Netanyahu out by...?"?

What are the current odds for "Netanyahu out by...?"?

How will "Netanyahu out by...?" be resolved?

Can I follow "Netanyahu out by...?" without placing a trade?

Why are Polymarket's odds for "Netanyahu out by...?" considered reliable?

How do I start trading on "Netanyahu out by...?"?

What does a price of 48¢ for "December 31" mean?

When does the "Netanyahu out by...?" market close?

What are traders saying about "Netanyahu out by...?"?

What is Polymarket?