Tarik Skubal and Dylan Cease dominate trader consensus for the 2026 AL Cy Young at around 25% implied probabilities each, reflecting their elite strikeout artistry and workload durability from recent dominant seasons, yet the razor-thin gap underscores AL pitching parity amid offseason uncertainties. Skubal's Tigers extension and back-to-back ace status vie with Cease's potential AL landing spot post-Padres trade rumors, while rising Mariners arms like Kirby, Woo, and Gilbert add momentum from strong peripherals. Veterans deGrom and Fried loom if healthy, but widespread health risks, rotation battles, and schedule variances keep the field bunched, embodying the wisdom of crowds in a wide-open race prone to midseason surges.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedTarik Skubal 19%
Garrett Crochet 15%
Jacob deGrom 12%
Max Fried 9.6%
Tarik Skubal
25%
Garrett Crochet
11%
Jacob deGrom
12%
Cole Ragans
7%
Hunter Brown
8%
Max Fried
10%
Bryan Woo
9%
Logan Gilbert
2%
Kyle Bradish
2%
Joe Ryan
2%
Ranger Suarez
6%
Nathan Eovaldi
6%
Dylan Cease
25%
George Kirby
12%
Carlos Rodón
5%
Kevin Gausman
2%
MacKenzie Gore
5%
Jose Soriano
5%
Pablo Lopez
6%
Gavin Williams
4%
Bryce Miller
5%
Cam Schlittler
5%
Gerrit Cole
3%
Tarik Skubal 19%
Garrett Crochet 15%
Jacob deGrom 12%
Max Fried 9.6%
Tarik Skubal
25%
Garrett Crochet
11%
Jacob deGrom
12%
Cole Ragans
7%
Hunter Brown
8%
Max Fried
10%
Bryan Woo
9%
Logan Gilbert
2%
Kyle Bradish
2%
Joe Ryan
2%
Ranger Suarez
6%
Nathan Eovaldi
6%
Dylan Cease
25%
George Kirby
12%
Carlos Rodón
5%
Kevin Gausman
2%
MacKenzie Gore
5%
Jose Soriano
5%
Pablo Lopez
6%
Gavin Williams
4%
Bryce Miller
5%
Cam Schlittler
5%
Gerrit Cole
3%
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Feb 18, 2026, 10:13 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Tarik Skubal and Dylan Cease dominate trader consensus for the 2026 AL Cy Young at around 25% implied probabilities each, reflecting their elite strikeout artistry and workload durability from recent dominant seasons, yet the razor-thin gap underscores AL pitching parity amid offseason uncertainties. Skubal's Tigers extension and back-to-back ace status vie with Cease's potential AL landing spot post-Padres trade rumors, while rising Mariners arms like Kirby, Woo, and Gilbert add momentum from strong peripherals. Veterans deGrom and Fried loom if healthy, but widespread health risks, rotation battles, and schedule variances keep the field bunched, embodying the wisdom of crowds in a wide-open race prone to midseason surges.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated



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